Xi Raises U.S.-China Conflict Risk Framework in Trump Meeting

Chinese President Xi Jinping asked U.S. President Donald Trump on May 14, 2026, whether China and the United States can avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” framing bilateral tensions as a test of whether a rising power and an established power can avoid conflict. The term, popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, refers to the risk that war follows when a rising power challenges a dominant one. Allison has cited 16 historical cases over 500 years, with 12 ending in war. Xi has used the concept since at least 2014 and raised it with President Joe Biden in November 2024. Beijing’s message is that conflict is not inevitable and that the two sides should pursue what China calls mutual respect and cooperation. The framing also positions China as a peer competitor to the United States, extending the dispute beyond trade, technology and Taiwan. Some U.S. policymakers prefer language focused on guardrails and risk management rather than the historical analogy.