NVDA Shares Stagnate Amid Soaring AI Capex and Valuation Pressure

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) shares remain range-bound despite record AI infrastructure spending from Big Tech, as the stock gains less than 1% since Q4 began and trails the S&P 500 in 2026. Big Tech capex is expected to exceed $600B in 2026, yet investors grow concerned about whether AI revenue will outpace the investment. Cyclical demand and slowing growth expectations compress the outlook: sales are forecast to expand 58% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, while the P/E is about 24x vs. a five-year average of 38x. UBS and other strategists warn infrastructure providers could face lower valuations as capex growth tapers. The next key event is the earnings report on February 25.