China's Oil Imports Slump to Decade Low, Setting Stage for Price Spike as Stockpiles Drain

China’s crude imports plunged to an estimated 6.78 million barrels per day in May 2026 — the lowest monthly rate in nearly 10 years — as refiners balked at prices inflated by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, Kpler data showed. The sharp drop from 8.5 million barrels per day in April and a 2025 average of 10.66 million barrels per day signals a heavy drawdown of the country’s 1.2-billion-barrel-plus strategic inventories to meet resilient domestic fuel demand. But the pause in overseas purchases is unlikely to last. Refinery throughput, while down to 13.5 million barrels per day, remains well above import levels, and Beijing is expected to step in to prevent stockpiles from falling to precarious levels. Analysts warn that China may be forced to return to global markets just as supply tightens dramatically: the International Energy Agency has flagged July and August 2026 as a “red zone” for oil supply disruptions. Constraints on alternative suppliers compound the pressure. A 22.5% U.S. crude tariff, Venezuelan restrictions, and the looming expiry of sanction waivers for Russian barrels loaded before April 17, 2026, leave Chinese buyers with limited options amid competition from India. The combination sets the stage for a potential aggressive price correction when China re-enters the market.