Global diesel shortage to persist into 2027 as inventories hit record lows

Global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight into 2027, as war-driven disruptions and shrinking inventories push prices to record highs and weigh on economies worldwide. US retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time in September, crimping farmers and truckers. US distillate inventories fell to 107.9 million barrels by September 11, the lowest for the season since 1982, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency expects stocks to stay below the five-year low through most of 2027. Storage market signals confirm the squeeze: leasable diesel capacity in North America and the Caribbean hit a four-year high of 13 million barrels for October, up from 11 million in June, said The Tank Tiger COO Steven Barsamian. Refiners and traders are letting storage leases lapse for lack of fuel to store. The US diesel crack spread reached a record $118.62 a barrel on September 14. Russia's diesel export ban, extended through October, and Middle East tensions could trigger further spikes.