Iran Considers Blocking Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Straits; Oil Prices Surge 6%

Iran is weighing a simultaneous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening up to 25% of global oil and natural gas supplies, as tensions with Israel escalate. Brent crude jumped more than 6% on Monday, June 2, 2026, briefly nearing $100 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global crude and LNG trade, while Bab el-Mandeb accounts for roughly 5% of daily crude supply, or 4.1 million barrels, and is a critical Asia-Europe shipping hub. A dual closure could disrupt nearly 30% of container traffic and put $10 billion in daily trade at risk, according to analysts. Some warn oil could spike to $150–$200. Saudi Arabia has been maximizing use of its east-west pipeline to Yanbu to bypass Hormuz, but that alternative becomes ineffective if Bab el-Mandeb is also blocked. Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope would add 10–14 days and $1.2–$1.8 million in fuel costs per voyage. The threat is seen as more credible given Iran’s proxy forces now possess execution capability, prompting close monitoring by traders and governments.