Record US Exports, China Slowdown Keep Oil Below $100 After Hormuz Shock

Three months after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices remain below $100 a barrel, defying dire forecasts of $200, according to market data. The loss of over 10 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern supply has been largely offset by record U.S. exports, a sharp unexpected decline in Chinese demand, and a thin flow of crude still crossing the strait. U.S. crude and fuel exports in May surged more than 2 million barrels a day above the 2025 average, while China slashed imports by almost 40% from last year’s levels, per Vortexa. Coordinated strategic reserve releases and alternative Gulf export routes added further relief. However, global stockpiles are depleting at a record pace, tightening the system by 70–80 million barrels each week. Dated Brent, the physical benchmark, has slipped back below $100 after spiking above $140 early in the conflict. Analysts warn that dwindling spare supplies leave the market increasingly vulnerable to sharp price swings.