Saudi Pipeline Restart Fails to Ease Oil Tightness as VLCC Rates Hit $1.2 Million Daily

Saudi Aramco's 7 million b/d East-West Pipeline resumed pumping at low rates on Sept. 22 after an 11-day shutdown, but full restoration of pre-attack flows near 4 million b/d could take six to eight weeks. ICE Brent slid toward $100 per barrel, yet freight and diesel markets signal persistent structural tightness. Gulf-to-China VLCC earnings soared to $1.2 million per day this week, and TotalEnergies fixed the Kuwait Prosperity at $75 million, equal to $38 per barrel, with similar offers nearing $100 million. Freight now accounts for at least 25% of crude delivered to Asia, up from 5-6% in 2025, pressuring refiner margins. Separately, Trafigura launched shipping arm Volare with 14 VLCCs, Apollo weighs a $3 billion sale of Energos Infrastructure, and Ukraine drone strikes halted Russia's 230,000 b/d Moscow refinery.