Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Global Oil Inventories to Critical Lows, Threatening $150 Brent (BZ=F)

Global oil stockpiles are approaching minimum operational levels, prompting warnings that Brent crude (BZ=F) could surge to $150–$160 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond end-June 2026. The waterway’s shutdown since late February 2026 has removed about 14 million barrels a day from the market, depleting commercial inventories of crude and refined products worldwide. Operational constraints are looming: onshore storage tanks with floating roofs require at least 20% fill, and refineries risk degradation below 65% utilization, according to Goldman Sachs. Exxon Mobil (XOM) senior vice president Neil Chapman told a May 29 conference that record-low inventories leave “only one way to go” — sharply higher prices until demand destruction kicks in. Strategic reserve releases and record U.S. exports of 14.17 million barrels a day in late April provided only temporary relief. Even if a diplomatic deal restarts flows, normalizing shipments would take months. “You cannot print molecules,” said Jeff Currie, co-chair of Abaxx Markets, underscoring the physical limits of the supply crunch.