Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Plummets 95% as Dark Transits Surge, Raising Oil Price Alarm

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by 90% to 95% from pre-conflict levels, with over half of vessels now switching off transponders to navigate in “dark mode,” according to shipping data from Vortexa. The opacity makes real-time tracking of crude, LNG, and clean products nearly impossible, obscuring how much supply actually reaches buyers. Dark transits accounted for 57% of all passages in recent weeks, peaking at 65.2% in May, as commercial shippers increasingly adopt tactics once limited to Iran-linked vessels evading sanctions. This broad adoption reflects a response to conflict risk and operational uncertainty, said Claire Jungman, Vortexa’s director of maritime risk. Exxon’s Senior Vice President Neil Chapman warned on June 4 that inventory levels are approaching unprecedented lows and dated Brent could surge to $150-$160 per barrel if the chokepoint stays choked. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said buffers are nearly exhausted. Oil prices remained below $100 a barrel on June 6 on hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal, but the Strait may never fully normalize. The chokepoint’s security remains uncertain, extending market volatility and raising fears of an imminent physical supply crunch.