Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Unlikely to Fully Recover; Exxon, Chevron Warn of Imminent Supply Shortage

Oil and gas tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz may never return to pre-conflict levels as Iran cements control over the waterway, analysts warn. The assessment comes as traffic remains significantly below levels seen before February 28, with expectations that Iran will retain de facto authority regardless of ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft said any outcome leaving Iran with operational control will result in permanently lower flows. Lloyd’s List Editor-in-Chief Richard Meade projected traffic could eventually rebound to 60%–70% of pre-war norms, but access would be bifurcated—Chinese vessels would receive preferential treatment, while Western tankers would face tolls. Meanwhile, executives from Exxon Mobil and Chevron issued stark inventory warnings. Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman said global crude stocks could hit “really, really low levels” in two to three weeks, triggering sharp price spikes. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said the market’s ability to absorb the imbalance is drastically diminished, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawn down to 365.1 million barrels from 415.4 million before the conflict. Brent crude was trading just above $93 per barrel, but Wirth expects upward price pressure to intensify through June and July, potentially pushing prices toward $120–$150 if disruption persists.