US-Venezuela Oil Pact Targets 300,000 bpd Boost, but Aging Fields and Heavy Crude Threaten Output Goals

The Trump administration's Venezuela oil deal, signed last month with energy mogul Alejandro Betancourt, gives the US majority control of 17 fields and an estimated 65 billion barrels of reserves. His firm, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), targets adding 300,000 barrels per day within two years. Industry analysts are skeptical. Most fields sit in the Orinoco Belt, where heavy, tar-like crude requires specialized extraction and billions in investment. Only four to five fields near Lake Maracaibo offer viable near-term gains, potentially adding 200,000 bpd — still short of NABEP's goal. "Reaching 500,000 barrels per day in two years is impossible," said Juan Szabo, former vice president at Petróleos de Venezuela SA. He sees 270,000 bpd as more realistic. Rice University's Francisco Monaldi flagged severe environmental liabilities and destroyed infrastructure at Lake Maracaibo sites. The deal also faces political blowback in Venezuela over sovereignty concerns. Analysts say output growth will be too gradual to offset Middle East supply disruptions alone.