US Rare Earth Reliance on China Persists Into 2030s Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks

The United States will remain dependent on China for rare earths well into the 2030s despite rapid domestic investment, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, underscoring the weak bargaining position facing President Donald Trump at his Thursday meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington. The US can meet only 42% of its demand for the two most-commonly used rare earths and will still import nearly a quarter of its needs within five years. China, the dominant global miner and refiner, agreed last year to delay export restrictions until November 10, 2026; extending that pause is on the agenda for the talks. Trump has funneled billions into MP Materials, USA Rare Earth and Energy Fuels since returning to office, but the White House's January 2027 deadline to block Chinese imports is deemed all but impossible to meet. US processing capacity for heavy rare earths used in military applications remains minimal, with output not expected to rise meaningfully until 2031.