10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5.1%, Highest Since 2007, on Hot US Data and Hawkish Fed

The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.1% on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, touching 5.129% — its highest level since July 2007 — as strong US business activity data and hawkish Federal Reserve comments fueled bets on further rate hikes. S&P Global reported that US business activity expanded for a fourth straight month in September at the fastest pace since July 2021, with both manufacturing and services output rising. Input costs climbed at the sharpest rate since October 2022 on higher fuel and transport expenses. CME FedWatch data showed traders priced the odds of a quarter-point Fed hike in October at nearly 70%, up from about 55% a day earlier. The 5-year yield rose to 5.010%, breaching 5% for the first time since July 2007; the 30-year reached 5.410% and the 2-year 4.908%. Fed Governor Michael Barr said achieving the 2% inflation target has grown riskier and that policy may need recalibration. A rebound in oil prices added further pressure to bonds.