Fed Chairman Warsh May Omit Dot Plot at June 18 Meeting, Challenging Communication Norms

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to omit his individual interest rate forecast from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), due on June 18, 2026. This move, if confirmed, would break a 14-year tradition for a new Fed chair and mark a significant shift in the central bank's communication strategy at his inaugural FOMC meeting. Warsh, who assumed office on May 22, has long criticized the "dot plot" as a form of forward guidance. Wall Street economists, including those from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, anticipate Warsh will not submit his forecast. He has previously argued that the dot plot contributes to "over-communication" and can hinder the Fed's ability to adapt to changing economic conditions, citing past misjudgments on inflation. While markets rely heavily on the SEP for policy direction, Warsh's potential action could introduce uncertainty and test his commitment to reforming Fed operations.