30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.613%, Highest Since 2002, as Oil Surge and Fed Rate Fears Trigger Bond Selloff

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, touching 5.613% — its highest level since 2002 — as Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher and investors bet the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. The 30-year yield stood at 5.609% intraday, up about 4 basis points. The 10-year yield rose to roughly 5.285%, near a 2007 high, while the 2-year yielded about 4.922%. Bond prices move inversely to yields. With the U.S.-Iran war now in its seventh month, elevated oil prices are stoking inflation concerns. After the Fed raised rates 25 basis points in a unanimous 12-0 vote this month, traders price a greater than 72% chance of another hike at the October meeting. Strong economic activity and mounting government debt are also pushing yields higher. The rout has hit the broader market: U.S. Treasurys are down 2.6% year-to-date on a Bloomberg index, versus a 6.3% gain in 2025. Citi strategists described a "mild buyer's strike," while Yardeni Research cited unwinding of yen-funded carry trades.