Wall Street Projects Over $1 Trillion in US T-Bill Issuance as Borrowing Costs Climb

Wall Street banks forecast the US Treasury will issue roughly $1 trillion in short-term debt over the coming year to meet rising government financing needs amid elevated borrowing costs, the Financial Times reported. Bank of America estimates net new borrowing, excluding rollovers of maturing debt, at about $1.07 trillion in the fiscal year through September 2027. JPMorgan projects T-bill issuance near $1.09 trillion, while Goldman Sachs forecasts $961 billion. The surge comes as long-term US borrowing costs have risen to their highest since 2007, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to压低 long-end yields through expanded 10- to 30-year buybacks. BofA expects outstanding T-bills to reach about $8 trillion by September 2027, or 24.3% of tradable Treasuries; Goldman sees 24.3% next year, rising to 24.9% by 2028 — near pandemic-era highs and above the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's recommended ~20%. Analysts say heavier bill issuance lowers near-term funding costs but raises future refinancing risk. BofA rates strategist Mark Cabana said the Treasury is balancing bond market supply and demand, but large bill issuance could make interest expenses "larger and more volatile."