China's Humanoid Robot Output Surges, But Weak Demand Triggers Bubble Warning

China's humanoid robot industry faces a widening demand gap, with production capacity far exceeding commercial orders, prompting a government warning about an investment bubble. Despite shipping roughly 85% of the 13,000 humanoids globally in 2025, most remain confined to performative tasks, falling short of practical deployment in messy, real-world environments, experts said on June 6, 2026. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology counted over 140 domestic manufacturers and 330 models last year, with Morgan Stanley valuing the future market at $5 trillion. However, sales are dominated by state-owned enterprises for limited uses like power plants and entertainment, while private demand from coffee chains and hotels remains nascent. Unitree and AGIBOT each shipped over 5,000 units in 2025, with Unitree generating $250 million in revenue and $41 million in profit. The research firm Omdia forecasts annual shipments could surpass 1 million by the early 2030s, but venture investors caution that without scalable demand, mass production remains elusive. Average robot prices fell to $46,000, with some under $6,000, yet costs are still too high for widespread adoption.