JPMorgan Cuts UBTech to Neutral, Shifts Humanoid Robot Exposure to Upstream Component Makers

JPMorgan downgraded humanoid robot maker UBTech to Neutral from Overweight and slashed its target price to HK$74 from HK$118, while reaffirming Overweight ratings on upstream suppliers Leaderdrive and Orbbec, citing a shift in industry value toward components and software. The bank forecasts global humanoid and legged robot shipments will rise to about 1.75 million units by 2030 from roughly 60,000 in 2026, with China growing to 900,000 from 50,000. It cautioned that the path from technical feasibility to commercial viability is more complex than expected, and that rapid product iteration and aggressive pricing will support volumes but pressure margins over the next 6-12 months. Average global robot prices are expected to fall about 56% cumulatively by 2035. JPMorgan kept Leaderdrive at Overweight with a 358 yuan target, implying 30% upside, and Orbbec at Overweight with a 110 yuan target, citing defensible moats in harmonic reducers and 3D vision sensors. Orbbec holds over 70% of China's service and humanoid robot vision market. UBTech's downgrade reflects earnings resets, pre-IPO investor selling and scarce near-term catalysts.