J.P. Morgan Raises WFE Forecasts, Highlights TSMC (TSM) Process Lead and Intel (INTC) Packaging Challenge

J.P. Morgan on June 17, 2026, significantly upgraded its global Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts, raising 2026 growth from 21% to 28% and 2027 from 18% to 29%. The firm also issued its first 2028 forecast at 16%, identifying advanced packaging as a primary investment theme in the AI wave. TSMC (TSM) maintains undisputed leadership in 2nm/3nm advanced process technology, remaining the sole foundry for "true 2nm" chips in 2026, with plans for 140,000 wafers per month by late 2026. However, J.P. Morgan notes Intel (INTC) is emerging as a credible second supplier in advanced packaging with its EMIB technology, securing external chip orders from AWS and Cisco, with Google TPU v8e expected by late 2027. Despite Intel's packaging gains, J.P. Morgan clarifies that Intel's role for clients like Google is limited to packaging, not 2nm/3nm wafer manufacturing, where TSMC's dominance is unchallenged. The report projects TSMC's CoWoS capacity to expand to 220,000 wafers per month by late 2028, but AI chip supply constraints are expected to persist until at least 2027.