JPMorgan: ASIC/XPU Shipments to Overtake GPUs by 2027, Custom AI Chip Market at $60-70B This Year

JPMorgan projects AI accelerator shipments will hit an inflection point in 2027, with ASIC/XPU share rising to 54% from about 41% this year — surpassing general-purpose GPUs for the first time — and reaching 55% in 2028. By unit volume, ASIC/XPU shipments would total roughly 12.5 million units in 2027 versus about 10.9 million GPUs. The bank estimates the custom AI ASIC market at $60 billion to $70 billion this year, with a compound annual growth rate above 40% to 50% over the next several years, making it a core driver of semiconductor demand. The shift is led by cloud providers' in-house silicon: Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium, Microsoft's Maia and Meta's MTIA, all optimized to cut per-token costs and power consumption. Broadcom and Marvell together hold about 90% of the custom AI ASIC market — Broadcom at 80%-85%, Marvell at 10%-12%. JPMorgan noted Broadcom's five-year Google agreement spans 2026-2031 across 3nm, 2nm and advanced packaging with escalating revenue terms. Key watchpoints include 2nm capacity, CoWoS packaging, HBM allocation and cloud self-design ramp schedules.