JPMorgan Sees AI Super Cycle Sustained, Projects Billions in Semiconductor Equipment and Memory Investment

JPMorgan analysts predict the AI capital expenditure super cycle will continue to expand, shifting benefits from GPU manufacturers to upstream semiconductor equipment suppliers, memory, and advanced packaging. A recent report forecasts the global wafer fabrication equipment market to nearly double, reaching $237.3 billion by 2028, up from an estimated $124.5 billion in 2025. This contradicts market expectations of a CapEx slowdown post-2026. Hyperscale cloud providers, including Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META), are projected to increase capital expenditure by 80% in 2026 to over $575 billion, then by another 50% in 2027 to nearly $860 billion. Investment is increasingly flowing into data center construction, power infrastructure, networking, memory expansion, and advanced packaging, rather than solely GPUs. JPMorgan also significantly raised its three-year memory CapEx estimate from $300 billion to $450 billion, with DRAM accounting for $364 billion, anticipating DRAM prices to jump 246% and NAND by 217%. TSMC (2330.TW) advanced process capacity utilization exceeds 100%, with prices rising 6-10% in 2026.