Citadel's Rubner Forecasts H2 US Stock Rally Amid Strong Retail, Technical Reset, July Seasonality

Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner forecasts a bullish outlook for U.S. equities in the second half of 2026, citing robust retail investor activity, a significant technical market reset, and favorable seasonal trends. Rubner, Head of Equities and Equity Derivatives, stated these factors reinforce an upward trajectory for markets. Citadel Securities, which processes approximately 35% of U.S. retail trades, observed record retail participation, with nine of its top ten retail trading days occurring in the month prior to June 22, 2026. The SpaceX IPO saw retail buying 50% above previous records. Late June marked a triple technical reset—month, quarter, and half-year end—alongside a "quadruple witching" event on June 19, 2026, where $8.3 trillion in options expired, clearing gamma positions. Historically, July has been strong, with the S&P 500 closing higher for the past 11 Julys and the Nasdaq 100 rising in 17 of the last 18 Julys. New asset allocation cycles begin July 1, 2026.