Stretched Valuation Metrics Signal Stock Market Bubble, Macquarie Strategist Warns

The U.S. stock market is exhibiting bubble-like conditions based on a range of valuation metrics that are now at extreme levels, Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets warned in a note released June 5, 2026. Indicators such as cyclically adjusted P/E ratios and market capitalization-to-GDP have hit thresholds that historically preceded significant drawdowns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 875 points to a record 51,562 on June 4, driven by value-seeking inflows into UnitedHealth (UNH), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). A broader rally has been powered by better-than-expected corporate earnings, massive AI infrastructure spending and confidence in resilient economic expansion. AI demand sparked strong earnings beats and stock pops for Cisco (CSCO), Snowflake (SNOW), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Dell (DELL). Shvets cautioned that a collapse of the U.S. equity bubble would have severe global repercussions, often more acute than in the U.S. itself. The note underscores that while valuations have appeared elevated for months, the risk of a correction is intensifying.