BofA says Target (TGT) is overvalued ahead of May 20 earnings

BofA analyst Christopher Nardone reiterated an Underperform rating on Target Corp. (TGT) on May 13, 2026, saying the retailer’s recent stock rebound may not be supported by fundamentals ahead of its May 20, 2026, earnings report. Target shares fell 1% in afternoon trading. Nardone said he expects a strong first-quarter result but remains cautious as sales trends slow after the quarter, tax-refund-driven spending fades, tariff-related pricing benefits are lapped in the second half and elevated gas prices weigh on consumers. He said Target may issue a balanced outlook if fuel prices remain high, combining macro caution with optimism on merchandising efforts. Target’s 2025 net sales fell 1.7% to $104.8 billion from $106.6 billion in 2024, while operating income dropped 8.1% to $5.1 billion. Comparable sales fell 2.5%, contrasting with Walmart U.S.’s 4.6% comparable sales gain. Shares have risen about 6% since early March as investors bet on a turnaround under CEO Michael Fiddelke.