Tesla Q3 Deliveries Beat Estimates, But JPMorgan Keeps Neutral Rating and $415 Target on Weak Margins

Tesla (TSLA) reported Q3 deliveries of 486,500 vehicles, beating JPMorgan's estimate by about 1% and Bloomberg consensus by 3%, but the outperformance failed to ease Wall Street concerns over near-term profitability. JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating and $415 price target, citing weak automotive gross margins and rising R&D spending. The bank forecasts adjusted EPS of $1.43 in 2026 and $1.45 in 2027, well below Bloomberg consensus of $1.65 and $2.22. At $354 per share, Tesla trades at roughly 248x 2026 earnings. JPMorgan expects a meaningful EPS inflection only in 2028. Energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh missed estimates, offsetting auto gains. R&D spending is projected to climb from $6.4 billion in 2025 to $13.4 billion by 2028, with free cash flow turning negative $10 billion in 2026. JPMorgan sees services, FSD and Robotaxi driving long-term growth.