Wheat Rally Accelerates as Black Sea Disruptions Threaten Global Food Inflation

Global wheat buyers face sharply higher costs as Russia-Ukraine war disruptions push benchmark Chicago futures up 40% from June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high, threatening renewed food inflation across Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Russian wheat exports are projected to fall to approximately 1 million tons in September from 5 million tons a year earlier, while Ukraine will ship about 1 million tons, half of last September's volume, according to Kpler. No. 2 importer Indonesia received only 60,000 tons from the Black Sea this month versus 500,000 tons a year ago. Egypt's wheat imports fell to 143,870 tons in the first half of September from 876,139 tons a year earlier. Black Sea wheat from Romania is quoted near $340 per ton C&F to Southeast Asia, with Australian Premium White at roughly $345 for October shipment — about 25% above pre-crisis levels. Competition for cargoes is expected to intensify until the Southern Hemisphere harvest begins.