The upcoming early lower house election is intensifying financial volatility, with hedge funds accelerating yen sell positions as political uncertainty spikes.

As the race heats up, the USD/JPY rose to a two-week high in early March 2026, with implied volatility on the Nikkei 225 reaching 30.6%, the highest in a decade during an election period. Polls show Prime Minister Koike Isehiro’s support slipping from 75% to 63.6% and 67%, with some at 57%, amid growing skepticism of economic stimulus and concern over inflation.

Koike’s threat to resign if her coalition does not secure a majority has heightened risk sentiment. Over $1 billion in USD/JPY put options were bought in early March, outpacing covered calls, as traders price in continued yen weakness and a potential突破 of 156-157. The yen has fallen roughly 15% since late October 2025, reaching an 18-month low, with expectations of further weakness as Fed policy outlooks remain key tailwinds for the dollar.

U.S. equity markets closed lower Wednesday, February 4, 2026, amid财报 digestion and anticipation of Alphabet's earnings, with investors reassessing whether AI-driven disruption could erode software sector profits. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.51% to 22,904.58, S&P 500 down 0.51% to 6,882.72, and the Dow Jones gained 0.53% to 49,501.30. Advanced Semiconductor and FANG+ indices declined sharply, with the latter down 2.44% to 14,734.66.

AMD plunged 17.31% to $200.19, its worst one-day performance since 2017, while the Nasdaq Composite's -1.5% daily outsize move marked the largest one-day decline for the index this year. Sectoral breadth showed energy, materials, real estate, healthcare, and必需消费 outperforming, while technology, communications services, and non-essential consumption lagged.

The ADP private payrolls report for January showed 22,000新增 jobs, below expectations of 45,000, reinforcing concerns about labor market weakness. Nonfarm payrolls, scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, 2026, have been delayed due to government shutdown aftermath.

Global risk sentiment continued, with oil prices pressured by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions; gold回落 below $5,000/oz; and Bitcoin pressured following Treasury signals on crypto stability. Alphabet's pre-market results showed strong revenue and profit guidance, with capital expenditures forecast between $175B and $185B, far exceeding analyst expectations.

[Para 1: The Lead] Markel Group (NYSE:MKL) exceeded market revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, reporting a 7.6% year-over-year increase in sales to $4.01 billion. GAAP earnings per share of $48.75 surpassed consensus by 21.1%. The company's strong performance underscores its resilience and market leadership.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] Net premiums earned, a key indicator of insurance operations, grew 7.6% year-over-year, topping Wall Street consensus by 5.1%. This growth is attributed to Markel's robust underwriting and investment strategies. The company's annualized revenue growth of 4.2% over the last two years, while below its five-year trend, reflects its strategic focus on core business activities. Markel's diversified revenue streams, including insurance, investments, and wholly-owned businesses, contribute to its financial strength and market position. The stock closed flat at $2,061 post-earnings, signaling market reaction to the solid financial results.

FormFactor (NASDAQ:FORM) reported Q4 CY2025 revenue of $215.2 million, a 13.6% year-on-year increase and 2.3% above analyst expectations. Non-GAAP profit of $0.46 per share was 30.6% above consensus, and guidance for Q1 CY2026 of $225 million at the midpoint reflects a 31.3% year-on-year increase.

CEO Mike Slessor highlighted record revenue on a quarterly and annual basis, with strong performance across foundry and fabless customers. The company’s DIO of 81 days is 14 days below its five-year average, indicating no inventory buildup and stable capital intensity.

Supporting context: Sell-side analysts expect 10.4% revenue growth over the next 12 months, while FormFactor’s 2.5% annualized growth over the past five years was below average. However, its two-year annualized growth of 8.8% and Q4’s positive inflection suggest recent demand acceleration. The stock rose 8.9% to $77.91 in after-hours trading following the report.

[Para 1: The Lead] Compass Minerals International Inc. (CMP) reported a fiscal first quarter profit of $18.6 million, marking a significant financial performance. The company's earnings per share stood at 43 cents, reflecting a strong start to the fiscal year. Revenue for the quarter reached $396.1 million, showcasing a robust financial health and market presence.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] Compared to the same period last year, Compass Minerals reported a 12% increase in revenue and a 15% growth in profit. The company's core business, focused on the production of minerals, benefited from higher demand and favorable market conditions. CMP's financial strength is bolstered by its strategic focus on sustainable and innovative mineral solutions, positioning it as a leader in the global minerals industry.

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Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD), a leading manufacturer of school buses, exceeded Wall Street's Q4 CY2025 revenue expectations, reporting a 6.1% year-over-year increase to $333.1 million. The company's non-GAAP profit of $1 per share surpassed analysts' consensus by 24.8%. Full-year revenue guidance of $1.5 billion at the midpoint was 1.5% below estimates.

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Blue Bird's strong performance is attributed to robust sales growth, with units sold increasing 4.2% year-over-year. The company's operating margin of 11.3% in Q4 matched the same quarter last year, indicating stable cost structure. Over the last five years, Blue Bird's sales grew at a 11.9% compounded annual growth rate, outpacing industry peers. Analysts project 3% revenue growth over the next 12 months, a deceleration from the last two years' 11.1% annualized growth. Blue Bird's EPS grew 42.9% annually over the past five years, exceeding its revenue growth, reflecting improved profitability. The stock rose 2.7% post-results, trading at $51.21.

Alphabet (GOOGL) reported Q4 revenue of $113.8B, up 18% YoY, and EPS of $2.82, up 31% YoY, beating estimates of $111.3B revenue and $2.64 EPS. Search revenue rose 17%, Google Services grew 14% to $95.9B, and YouTube ads climbed 9% to $11.4B. Google Cloud revenue jumped 48% to $17.7B, with operating income of $5.3B and an operating margin over 30%.

The quarter’s most disruptive news: Alphabet plans $175B–$185B in 2026 capital expenditures, more than double the $115B–$120B previously expected, dwarfing peers like Meta ($115B–$135B) and Microsoft’s current $37.5B-quarter spend. Free cash flow remained roughly flat YoY despite a 34% rise in operating cash flow to $52.4B, as capex consumption outpaced operating cash.

EPS included a $2.3B gain on equity securities, and Waymo’s $2.1B employee compensation charge widened other bets losses. The aggressive spending underscores Alphabet’s infrastructure pivot and the risk premium investors are pricing into its AI transition.

Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. (KLIC) reported fiscal first-quarter net profit of $16.8 million, or 32 cents per share, with adjusted net income of 44 cents per share.

Revenue for the period totaled $199.6 million. The company expects revenue of $220 million to $240 million for the current quarter ending March 31, 2026.

[Para 1: The Lead] Kemper Corp. (KMPR) reported a quarterly loss of $8 million in the fourth quarter of 2026, missing Wall Street expectations. The company's earnings per share (EPS) were a loss of 13 cents, significantly below the 85 cents per share average analyst estimate.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] Despite the loss, Kemper's revenue stood at $1.13 billion, with an adjusted revenue of $1.15 billion. For the full year, Kemper reported a profit of $143.3 million, or $2.29 per share, on revenue of $4.8 billion. The company's financial performance indicates ongoing challenges, particularly in its insurance operations, which may impact investor sentiment and stock performance (KMPR).

Fiscal first-quarter 2026 results for Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) show earnings of $65.2 million and adjusted net income of 38 cents per share, outperforming revenue of $207 million. Basic earnings per share were 25 cents, exceeding the 38 cent per share average of three analyst estimates from Zacks Investment Research. The results reflect the business development company's continued focus on investment cost management.

Geospace Technologies Corp. (GEOS) reported a first-quarter loss of $9.8 million, or 76 cents per share, on revenue of $25.6 million for the fiscal period ended January 31, 2026.

The Houston-based provider of seismic instruments and equipment posted a net loss despite reporting revenue of $25.6 million, reflecting continued pressure in the oilfield services sector during the first quarter of 2026.

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EnerSys (NYSE:ENS), a battery manufacturer, underperformed Q4 CY2025 sales expectations, reporting a 1.4% year-over-year increase to $919.1 million. Shares fell 8.5% post-earnings. Analysts had expected $980 million in revenue, slightly above the actual.

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EnerSys (NYSE:ENS) exceeded EPS estimates by 1.8% in Q4, at $2.77 per share, above consensus. However, its sales volume and revenue missed Wall Street’s forecasts. Over the past five years, EnerSys’s sales growth has been tepid at 4.9% CAGR, below the industrials sector average. Its operating margin improved by 5.1 percentage points over the same period, reflecting cost management. Despite this, the company’s annualized revenue growth of 1% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. EnerSys’s units sold declined 1.1% annually over the same period, indicating pricing was a driver of revenue growth. Looking ahead, sell-side analysts project 1.9% revenue growth over the next 12 months, similar to its recent performance.

[Para 1: The Lead] Coherent (NYSE:COHR), a materials and photonics company, has exceeded market expectations with Q4 CY2025 sales up 17.5% year-over-year to $1.69 billion. The stock surged post-earnings, reflecting strong performance. Non-GAAP profit of $1.29 per share surpassed analysts’ consensus by 7%, showcasing robust financial health.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] Coherent’s revenue guidance for the next quarter is $1.77 billion, a 3.4% beat over market forecasts. The company attributes its success to robust demand in datacenter and communications segments, with management predicting continued growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027. With $6.29 billion in trailing 12-month revenue and a strong historical growth trend, Coherent is a notable performer in the business services sector. Its adjusted operating margin of 19.9% in Q4, up 1.5 percentage points from the prior year, highlights operational efficiency. Wall Street expects full-year EPS of $4.36 to grow 34.7% over the next 12 months, underscoring market optimism.

Coherent Corp. (COHR) released fiscal second-quarter results on February 04, 2026, reporting earnings of $146.7 million, or 76 cents per share, with adjusted net income of $1.29 per share. Revenue reached $1.69 billion, both beating analyst expectations from Zacks Investment Research. The company expects per-share earnings for the current quarter to range from $1.28 to $1.48 and revenue for the fiscal third quarter to be between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion.

ASGN INC (ASGN) reported fourth-quarter profit of $25.2 million, or 59 cents per share, up from $1.15 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Revenue for the quarter totaled $980.1 million. For the full year, the staffing company earned $113.5 million, or $2.60 per share, on revenue of $3.98 billion. ASGN shares rose 11% YTD, closing at $53.28, while the stock has declined 39% over the past 12 months.

[Para 1: The Lead] Allstate Corp. (ALL) reported a significant fourth-quarter earnings snapshot, exceeding Wall Street forecasts. The company posted earnings of $14.31 per share, adjusted for non-recurring gains, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $9.82 per share. Shares of ALL climbed 8.5% to $207.12 in the final trading minutes of the day.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] Revenue for the quarter was $17.27 billion, slightly below the expected $17.52 billion. For the full year, Allstate reported a profit of $38.06 per share on revenue of $67.85 billion. Despite the slight decline in shares since the start of the year, the market reaction to the strong earnings report indicates positive investor sentiment. The S&P 500 index has seen a 0.5% increase over the same period.

Dollar holds steady as it recovers from a four-year low, with EUR/USD pressured by inflation expectations despite modest weakness in key labor data. At close in New York, the Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.3% to 97.69, reflecting anticipation of a hawkish nominee for Fed Chair and potential reduction of asset purchases.

Euro/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1802 amid a 1.7% annualized inflation reading below the ECB’s 2% target, maintaining expectations of continued policy restraint. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman notes divergence: lower inflation risks easing monetary support, but improving growth and a favorable policy environment could outweight any easing.

GBP/USD declined 0.3% to 1.3657, with the BoE expected to keep policy unchanged. USD/JPY rose 0.5% to 156.55 as Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s comments raised doubts over intervention to support the yen, with attention shifting to the February 8 House elections.

Key Indices (as of February 5, 6:00 PM UTC): DXY 97.6557; EUR/USD 1.1800; GBP/USD 1.3652; AUD/USD 0.6993; USD/CAD 1.3656; USD/JPY 156.7900.

[Para 1: The Lead] Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP), a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based oil and gas well-drilling contractor, reported a fiscal Q1 loss of $96.7 million, or 98 cents per share, significantly below Wall Street expectations of 12 cents per share. Despite the loss, HP's revenue of $1.02 billion surpassed forecasts, marking a 6.5% increase over the prior year's Q1 revenue of $966.4 million.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] HP's adjusted earnings of 15 cents per share fell short of analyst estimates. The company's revenue growth can be attributed to increased demand in its core drilling services. HP's management attributes the Q1 loss to higher-than-expected operational costs and maintenance expenses. The company's stock closed down 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. HP's shares are currently trading at $52.30, down 1.5% year-to-date.

Google reported Q4 results for the period ended January 3, 2026, showing profit of $34.5 billion, or $2.82 per share, up 30% from the prior-year period, and revenue of $113.8 billion, up 18%. Digital ad sales reached $82.3 billion, a 14% increase, while Google Cloud revenue rose 48% to $17.7 billion. The AI segment, including data center sales for Gemini and other AI services, climbed 30% year-over-year. Alphabet’s stock closed up nearly 60% in five months to a $4 trillion market cap, but dipped 1% in extended trading following the report.

[Para 1: The Lead] Globe Life Inc. (GL) surpassed Wall Street earnings expectations in the fourth quarter, reporting a net income of $266.1 million. Per share, the company achieved $3.29, exceeding analyst forecasts of $3.44.

[Para 2-3: Supporting details & Context] Revenue for the quarter was $1.52 billion, slightly below analyst estimates of $1.54 billion. For the fiscal year, Globe Life reported a profit of $1.16 billion, or $14.07 per share, on revenue of $6.02 billion. The company's performance reflects strong market conditions and effective cost management strategies.