Bitcoin is navigating a liquidity-driven divergence from gold rather than price weakness, according to Darius Sit of QCP Capital, Asia’s largest crypto trading desk with over $60B annual volume. October 10’s deleveraging exposed stark differences in crypto venues’ handling of credit and counterparty risk, with native exchanges vulnerable to “socialized loss” and perceived rule asymmetry across products and counterparties. This governance uncertainty contrasts with traditional markets’ layered clearing structures, hurting broader altcoins more than Bitcoin, which benefits from deeper liquidity and clearer collateral utility.

In the last hour, BTC rose about 5% to near $60K amid RSI ~17 oversold conditions and a pullback from $60K support; ETH gained ~7% to $1,895 after a 24-hour double-digit decline as volatility spiked. Gold fell ~3.7% to ~$4,740 during a broader risk-off, though the longer-term uptrend remains supported by central bank buying and macro tailwinds. Asian equities extended a three-day losing streak as risk-off spread from a Wall Street tech rout, weighing on the Nikkei 225, Kospi, and precious metals.

U.S. futures and Asian shares traded lower Friday as Wall Street’s tech-driven sell-off spread globally. The S&P 500 futures were 0.3% lower, and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq composite futures were down 0.2% and 1.6%, respectively. Tech stocks led the decline as concerns grow over ROI on AI investments; Qualcomm fell 8.5%, Alphabet -0.5%, and Amazon -11% after-hours following a $200B AI spending hike.

Bitcoin dipped 9% to near $65,000, briefly跌破 $64,000, down from a record above $124,000 in October. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2% to 26,569.14; South Korea’s Kospi -1.7% to 5,076.69 (Samsung Electronics -0.9%, SK Hynix -0.6%); Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 +0.5% to 54,073.52 (SoftBank +1.9%, Tokyo Electron +3.0%); and Taiwan’s Taiex -0.2%. Japan holds its general election Sunday.

Gold prices fell 1% to $4,843.70/oz; silver -6.6% to $71.63/oz. U.S. crude gained 35 cents to $63.64/bbl; Brent +36 cents to $67.91/bbl. The dollar weakened to 156.74 JPY from 157.03; the euro rose to $1.1789 from $1.1777.

BRK.B-US has more than doubled the value of its investment in Japan’s top five merchant banks since 2019, with holdings now approaching $400 billion from $138 billion. The holding includes Mitsubishi Corporation (MTSS), Marubeni (MRBN), Mitsui & Co. (7278), Sumitomo Mitsui (7291), and SMBC (8988), with average stakes around 9% and outperforming the Topix: Mitsubishi and Marubeni up roughly 20% in 2026 versus 7% for the index.

The investment, publicly announced in September 2020, began with a low P/E under 10 and has delivered a “double-dip” of earnings growth and rising valuations. While the calculation excludes currency gains, the yen’s roughly 40% depreciation since 2020, offset by more than $20 billion in tax-shielded interest from yen-denominated borrowings, has boosted overall returns.

Currently the third-largest stock position behind Apple (AAPL) and American Express (AXP), the holding aligns with Buffett’s value-and-dividend style and is expected to increase to above 10% under current leadership. It stands as a standout gain since the pandemic, following a period of mixed results with other major bets.

U.S. futures and Asian shares traded lower Friday as Wall Street’s tech-driven sell-off spread globally. The S&P 500 futures were 0.3% lower, and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq composite futures were down 0.2% and 1.6%, respectively. Tech stocks led the decline as concerns grow over ROI on AI investments; Qualcomm fell 8.5%, Alphabet -0.5%, and Amazon -11% after-hours following a $200B AI spending hike.

Bitcoin dipped 9% to near $65,000, briefly跌破 $64,000, down from a record above $124,000 in October. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2% to 26,569.14; South Korea’s Kospi -1.7% to 5,076.69 (Samsung Electronics -0.9%, SK Hynix -0.6%); Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 +0.5% to 54,073.52 (SoftBank +1.9%, Tokyo Electron +3.0%); and Taiwan’s Taiex -0.2%. Japan holds its general election Sunday.

Gold prices fell 1% to $4,843.70/oz; silver -6.6% to $71.63/oz. U.S. crude gained 35 cents to $63.64/bbl; Brent +36 cents to $67.91/bbl. The dollar weakened to 156.74 JPY from 157.03; the euro rose to $1.1789 from $1.1777.

Iron ore futures for 61%-content ore fell to $99.80 a ton, the lowest since August 2025, as Chinese demand is expected to slow before the Lunar New Year and supply remains abundant. Stockpiles at major Chinese ports and mills reached the highest level since 2022, with mills reducing hot-metal output and restocking activity ending. Output declines year-on-year in the steel market, while major producers in Australia and Brazil increase production and a new Guinea project adds to seaborne supply. The pricing dispute between BHP Group and China Mineral Resources Group Co. may also be contributing to higher holdings. March futures traded 0.8% lower at 10:41 a.m. Singapore time.

Bill Holdings Inc. (BIL) reported a net loss of $28.5 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, despite a 6% year-over-year increase in revenue to $147.3 million. The decline in profitability followed a strategic shift toward higher-margin products and increased R&D spending to expand its digital payment solutions. CFO John Martinez stated the company is investing to strengthen its position in the mid-market payments segment, with guidance for 2026 revenue growth of 4%–6%.

Bloom Energy (BLOM) released Q4 2025 results showing revenue of $148.5 million, a 12% year-over-year decline. Operating income was -$21.3 million, versus a -$19.8 million loss in the same period last year. EPS came in at -$0.21, missing the $0.15 consensus estimate by $0.03. The company attributed the results to continued supply chain disruptions and reduced demand for its solid oxide fuel cell systems. Revenue by segment: Utility-scale $112.3M (-15% YoY); Distributed Energy $36.2M (-10% YoY).

Feb 6, 2026 — Japan’s largest banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), are planning to gradually increase holdings of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) despite growing unrealized yen-denominated bond portfolio losses. Higher yields, signaling a potential peak in the yield curve, are expected to provide better returns.

MUFG recorded 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in unrealized bond losses at year-end, up from 40 billion yen in March, while SMFG’s losses more than doubled to 98 billion yen over the nine months to December. The banks are expected to avoid longer-duration bonds until yields stabilize following the Bank of Japan’s three rate hikes since March 2024, when the policy rate stood at 0.75%.

Analysts note that with the 10-year JGB yield at 2.195% and expectations for it to reach 2.5%, the timing is favorable for cautious JGB purchases. Goldman Sachs raised 2028 net profit forecasts for MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho Financial Group by 20%, 11%, and 21%, respectively, reflecting higher yields and a weaker yen.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy signaled strong confidence in the company's aggressive AI investment despite market unease over a $200 billion capital expenditure forecast, sending AMZN down 11% in after-hours trading on February 6, 2026. The 2026 figure, well above analysts' expectations, reflects a 49% increase from $1.31 trillion in 2025 to $2.00 trillion, up from $830 billion in 2024.

The outlay is driven by expanding data centers, chips, and networking equipment to meet surging AI compute demand. While AWS revenue rose 24% year-over-year to $35.6 billion in 2025, the strategy is to build long-term competitive advantage, with AWS growth potentially accelerating as compute supply tightens. Amazon added nearly 4 gigawatts of compute capacity in 2025 and plans to double its compute footprint by 2027.

The market remains focused on when the investment will generate returns, as the industry-wide AI compute boom continues to outpace short-term earnings impacts.

Lean hog futures closed lower on Thursday, with front-month contracts falling 7 to 70 cents. USDA's national base hog price was $86.58, down 24 cents from the prior day. The CME Lean Hog Index rose 23 cents to $86.06 on Feb 3.

Weekly export sales for the week ending Jan 29 totaled 35,107 MT, down 37.3% from the prior week and 30.7% below the same week last year. Mexico accounted for 13,800 MT, with 5,200 MT sold to China. Export shipments were 37,622 MT, up 4.7% from the same week last year.

The USDA reported a carcass cutout value of $95.27/cwt on Thursday, with the belly up $6.38 and the rib down. Slaughter for Thursday totaled 450,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 1.903 million head, 38,000 head above last week but 26,824 head below the same week last year.

Feb 26: $87.300, -0.700

Apr 26: $98.375, -0.075

May 26: $101.500, -0.250

Former BOJ vice minister for international affairs, Takehiko Nakao, argues that while Japan's FX reserves can immediately impact markets, their effect is more durable when paired with steady interest rate hikes. With the yen resuming its decline as Japan heads to Sunday's election, Nakao said the BOJ's accommodative stance and slow pace of rate increases have kept inflation-adjusted interest rates negative and widened U.S.-Japan yield differentials.

The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75% in December, signaling readiness to hike further, but real borrowing costs remain deeply negative as inflation exceeds 2% for nearly four years. Nakao warned that without faster rate hikes, the yen could weaken further, citing outgoing Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's adherence to a strong dollar tradition.

Bitcoin plunged 14% in a single day from February 4–5, 2026, the steepest one-day drop since November 9, 2022, according to CoinGlass. Prices extended a 50% drawdown from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, reaching as low as $60,255 and briefly hitting $64,400 by Thursday evening. Over 24 hours, more than $1.4 billion in liquidations occurred.

A bear market is typically defined as a 20% or greater decline from a recent peak over an extended period. Bitcoin’s selloff meets this definition, with analysts citing macroeconomic weakness, leverage unwinds, and capitulation from miners and corporate treasuries as key drivers. If the decline accelerates, $38,000 is cited as a potential support level.

Despite the bear market, some researchers expect a short-term technical rebound as liquidity may flow back into equities or commodities. The broader tech and software sector’s influence on global liquidity continues to shape crypto price direction.

Cotton futures trade lower across all front-month contracts on February 4, closing at 61.76, 63.5, and 65.26 for March, May, and July, down 48, 49, and 46 points, respectively. Sales in the week ending January 29 totaled 249,836 bales, up 22.67% from the prior week but 10.78% below the same week in 2025. Shipments of 235,313 bales were 8.45% lower than a week ago but 53.29% higher than the same week in 2025, with major destinations: Vietnam (84,300 bales), Pakistan (29,100 bales), and China (not specified). Vietnam accounted for 54,000 bales, Pakistan for 48,100 bales. The online auction sold 57.91 cents/lb on 5,856 bales; the Cotlook A Index at 73.15 cents/lb; ICE certified stocks at 47,653 bales, up 11,138 from the prior day; and the Adjusted World Price at 49.78 cents/lb, down 42 points from the prior day. Crude oil futures fell $2.02 to $63.12 on the day; the dollar index at $97.860, up $0.371.

Corn futures rose on Thursday as carryover strength spilled over from soybeans and meal, though contracts closed 5 to 6 cents lower. The CommodityView national average Cash Corn price was up 5 1/2 cents at $4.02 3/4.

This week’s average closes: December at $4.57 (used for livestock feed costs), February at $4.70 (spring base crop insurance price). Weekly export sales for the week of 1/29 totaled 1.04 MMT, down 36.8% from the prior week and 29.5% below the same week last year. Mexico accounted for 247,600 MT, with Japan taking 246,800 MT and South Korea 125,800 MT. January Brazil exports were 4.25 MMT, down 30.69% from the prior year but 18.18% above the same week last year.

Closing prices: Mar 26 @ $4.35, +5 1/2¢; May 26 @ $4.43, +6¢; Jul 26 @ $4.49 1/4, +6¢.

Live and feeder cattle futures fell on Thursday as the Greeley, CO JBS plant voted to authorize a strike, pending a timeline. Live cattle contracts closed down $5 to $6.20, with no sales in the 1,602-head online auction at $235-$236. Feeder cattle futures were down $6 to $7.50 in front-month contracts; the CME Feeder Cattle Index rose 59 cents to $375.16 on February 4.

USDA reported 19,748 MT of beef sold in the week ending January 29, the largest in the calendar year, with shipments 3.32% higher than the prior week but 34.53% lower than the same week last year. Choice boxes closed at $367.25 (-$0.75), Select at $360.37 (-$1.72). Federal inspected cattle slaughter totaled 114,000 head for Thursday, seasonally 14,000 head higher but 23,336 head lower than the same week last year.

Key contracts: Feb 26 Live Cattle @ $235.25 (-$5.28); Apr 26 @ $235.60 (-$6.20); Jun 26 @ $232.20 (-$5.03); Mar 26 Feeder @ $364.08 (-$6.00); Apr 26 @ $360.50 (-$7.00); May 26 @ $356.20 (-$7.55).

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) released Q2 2026 results showing revenue of $2.4B, up 16% from $2.07B in the same period of 2025. Net income rose 22% to $218 million, driven by cost optimization and higher lending volumes. The company reported 1.8 million active users in Q2, a 7% increase from Q2 2025. Management attributed the improvement to expanded access to small and midsize businesses and continued digital lending expansion.

SpaceX and xAI's formal merger this week signals serious integration of Musk's space and AI initiatives, with plans to establish an orbital data center network leveraging solar power for AI operations. The FCC has accepted SpaceX's application, with a public comment period scheduled, and Chairman Brendan Carr shared the filing, indicating regulatory support.

Musk argues that solar arrays in space generate about five times more power than on Earth, potentially making orbital AI cheaper. However, critics question reliability and maintenance. Musk projects orbital AI will be the most economically viable option within 30 months and predicts by 2028 AI operations in space will surpass those on Earth. By 2030, global data center capacity is expected to reach 200GW, roughly $10 billion in infrastructure investment.

With SpaceX's core strength in orbital delivery and the pending IPO of the combined entity, continued data center spending could increasingly shift into space.

Affirm announced the launch of BoostAI, an AI tool enabling merchants to A/B test promotional financing programs to maximize sales conversions and lift merchant revenue. The technology complements AdaptAI, its AI-powered rewards platform, and is being used by 47 enterprise and hundreds of SMB customers. Early adopters report 5%–15% higher gross merchandise volume.

Q2 2026 results: Revenue $1.12B (+30 YoY), Net Income $129.6M (+61 YoY), GMV $13.8B (+36 YoY). 60% of 0% APR GMV outpaced overall GMV growth, with 65% of loan applications presented with 0% APR and 39% of transactions at 0% APR. The company posted 478,000 active merchants as of December 31, 2025, a 42% YoY increase.

Camden Property Trust (CMT) reported fourth-quarter earnings for the week ended January 31, 2026, with net income rising to $129.6 million, or 69.6 cents per share, up 12.4% from the prior-year period. Revenue increased 4.2% to $1.12 billion. The company attributed the improvement to stronger occupancy and stabilized leasing in its core markets. For the quarter, the company leased 1.5 million square feet, reflecting continued demand for its office space.

Hub Group (HBG) has delayed its Q4 earnings release following the release of preliminary results that show revenue down 12% to $1.2B, and net loss of $250M, or $0.32 per share, versus a profit of $150M in the same period a year ago. The company cited the need for updated guidance and reconciliation of prior financial statements as reasons for the postponement, which is now expected by February 15, 2026.

The preliminary figures reflect continued pressure from supply chain disruptions and lower industrial demand, with operating income down 22% to $140M. Management will provide further details during the revised earnings call, including updated guidance for 2026.