U.S. nonfarm payrolls for January 2026 rose 130,000, far exceeding the 66,000 median forecast and the 48,000 from December 2025, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Citigroup analysts, led by Veronica Clark, now project a rate cut in May rather than March, citing stronger-than-expected labor market stability. They note a "not hiring, not laying off" environment with slower job gains and higher attrition.

“We expect at least three 25-bp cuts this year, but timing shifts to May, July, and September,” the analysts wrote. They caution that the January numbers do not reverse their view of a gradual labor market cooldown and a potential rise in unemployment in 2026, with 2025’s previously reported gains revised down to 181,000 from 584,000.

The pattern of stronger data in fall 2025 and weakness in spring 2026 suggests “a likely reoccurrence of the annual labor market seesaw,” according to Citigroup.

Applied Materials (AMAT) on February 12, 2026, announced new deposition, etch and material modification systems to enhance performance and energy efficiency of 2nm and beyond GAA transistors in AI chips. The solutions focus on atomic-level gate and channel engineering to meet AI workloads.

The company introduced the Viva free-radical surface treatment to clean and uniform GAA nanosheets, reducing defect impact and improving electron mobility. The Centris Spectral atomic-layer deposition system deposits single-crystal tantalum for interconnects, potentially reducing key contact resistance by up to 15% compared to conventional tungsten.

In advanced etch, the Sym3 Z Magnum platform integrates PVT2 to achieve precise, ion-controlled high aspect-ratio trenches in GAA and DRAM/HBM processes, with over 250 process cells deployed globally. These innovations support continued Moore’s Law scaling and next-generation AI compute.

Confluent (NASDAQ:CFLT) reported Q4 CY2025 revenue of $314.8 million, up 20.5% year-on-year, and non-GAAP profit of $0.12 per share, 21.1% above consensus. The stock closed at $30.43 after the report.

Supporting context: The company added 1,521 enterprise customers paying over $100,000 annually, a 34-unit increase from the prior quarter, but new enterprise wins slowed, signaling reliance on upsell or down-market acceleration for future growth. Analysts project 15.8% CAGR in revenue over the next 12 months, below its 22.5% annualized pace over the past two years but above sector average. A definitive agreement was announced on December 8, 2025, for IBM (NYSE: IBM) to acquire Confluent at $31.00 per share, valued at $11 billion, with a planned closing by mid-2026 pending approvals.

Ernst & Young has designated Meta Platforms (META-US)'s $27 billion data center transaction as a critical audit matter, noting the company used accounting arrangements to remove the Hyperion data center from its balance sheet, involving significant judgment and risk.

Meta moved the Hyperion project into a joint venture with Blue Owl Capital in October 2025, holding 20% and with Blue Owl's funds owning 80%. Blue Owl's parent, Beignet Investor, issued $27.3 billion bonds, setting a new record.

The joint venture is classified as a variable interest entity (VIE), and Meta claims not to be the primary beneficiary, thereby excluding its assets and liabilities from its consolidated financials. While Ernst & Young accepted Meta's accounting treatment, the audit report highlights the judgment required to determine which activities most affect the VIE's economic performance.

Congressional concerns have risen, with four Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, writing to the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) on January 22, 2026, to investigate risks posed by AI-related financing. They warned of increasingly complex and opaque arrangements that can obscure a company's financial position, citing the Meta-Blue Owl joint venture as a representative example.

Arko Petroleum Corp. priced its IPO at $18 per share, raising $200 million by selling 11.1 million shares, the bottom of its $18–$20 marketed range. The offering, led by UBS, Raymond James, and Stifel, is expected to trade Thursday on the Nasdaq under symbol APC. The fuel wholesaler, operating in over 30 U.S. states and serving more than 3,100 stations, has a pre-IPO market value of about $830 million. Financials for the three months ended Sept. 30, 2025: revenue $4.27 billion, net income $24.7 million; gallon volume 1.5 billion. Arko Corp. retains majority voting control, and the unit plans to pay a $0.50 quarterly dividend post-IPO.

Estée Lauder filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California on February 9, 2026, alleging Walmart sold counterfeit versions of its and affiliated brands' fragrance and skincare products on its website.

According to court records, the products sold by Walmart bear marks identical, substantially indistinguishable, or confusingly similar to Estée Lauder's, with the company having purchased and tested samples confirming inauthenticity. The lawsuit alleges Walmart knew or should have known about the counterfeits and did little to ensure authenticity.

Estée Lauder seeks injunctive relief to stop sales, as well as monetary damages. In a statement, Walmart said it has "zero tolerance for counterfeit products" and will respond when served.

Alleged counterfeit items include products under Aveda, Clinique, La Mer, Le Labo, and Tom Ford.

Senators Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Katie Britt (R-Alabama) introduced legislation to modernize the Durbin Amendment, tying the $10 billion asset cap for debit card swipe fees to the Consumer Price Index. The retroactive change would lift restrictions on smaller banks, keeping the 21-cent base fee plus 0.05% per transaction. The proposal, effective from 2010, aims to reflect inflation and reduce retail banking costs. A companion bill is pending in the House led by Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky).

The current interchange fee structure, exceeding 2% for many retailers, faces ongoing regulatory and lobbying battles, including efforts by Durbin and Marshall to maintain the cap. The move aligns with broader efforts to adjust post-crisis banking regulations to current economic realities.

Pershing Square Capital Management increased its META-US stake to 10% of its capital as of December 2025, citing confidence in Meta’s pivot to artificial intelligence. The firm argues that market concerns over AI-related capital expenditures have depressed the stock, with its long-term upside potentially significantly undervalued.

Meta’s stock has declined 16% over the past 12 months, while the firm projects $115B–$135B in AI capital expenditures for 2026. Excluding Reality Labs’ current operating losses, Meta’s core advertising business appears even more attractively valued at a forward P/E of about 22.

The firm has added to its technology exposure this quarter, buying Amazon and Hertz. It sold its remaining stakes in Chipotle and Hilton, citing management changes at Chipotle and the conclusion of a long holding in Hilton, where current valuations no longer meet its high-returns-with-risk target.

Pershing Square outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with net asset value up 20.9% versus 17% for the index.

Lean hog futures extended declines on February 11, with February contracts down 5.0 cents to $86.90, and nearby February down 0.10. The CME Lean Hog Index fell 14.00 cents to $86.32 on February 6. USDA base hog price was $88.17, up 43.00 cents from the prior day. Pork carcass cutout value was $93.77 per cwt, down $1.69; slaughter for Wednesday was 495,000 head, up 63,000 from last week and 10,047 from the same week last year.

Feb 26: Feb CME Lean Hog @ $86.90, +$0.05

Apr 26: Apr CME Lean Hog @ $93.85, -$1.65

May 26: May CME Lean Hog @ $98.025, -$1.50

Cotton futures ended Wednesday higher, closing 11 to 40 points across contracts. Crude oil futures fell $0.94 to $64.90 per barrel, while the US dollar index dropped $0.130 to $96.805.

Sales totaled 10,876 bales on 2/10 at 57.48 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index rose 75 points to 73.30 cents on Tuesday. ICE certified stocks increased 3,938 bales to 99,096, with the Adjusted World Price at 49.78 cents/lb, scheduled for update Thursday.

Contracts:

- Mar 26: 61.99, +40

- May 26: 64.04, +26

- Jul 26: 65.69, +21

The publication date was 2026-02-11. Austin Schroeder had no positions in any mentioned securities as of the report date.

Corn futures ended slightly lower in afternoon trading on February 13, 2026, with near-month contracts down 1.5 cents and new crop contracts up 1.0 to 2.25 cents. The CommodityView national average Cash Corn price closed at $3.94, down 1.25 cents from the prior day.

The December 2026 contract average closed at $4.58, used as a base for crop insurance. USDA reported a private export sale of 230,560 metric tons of corn on February 11, with traders expecting 0.6–1.1 MMT of 2025/26 corn to be sold in the week of February 5–9 and 0–100,000 MT of 2026/27 corn.

Ethanol production rose 154,000 bpd to 1.11 million bpd in the week ending February 13; stocks climbed 111,000 to 25.247 million bbls. Exports fell 79,000 bpd to 137,000 bpd while refiner inputs increased 50,000 bpd to 841,000 bpd.

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27 1/2, down 1 1/4 cent; Nearby Cash at $3.94, down 1 1/4 cent; May 26 Corn at $4.36 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Jul 26 Corn at $4.44 1/4, down 1/2 cent.

Paycom Software (PAYC) on February 11, 2026, forecast 2026 revenue between $2.18B and $2.20B, below Wall Street estimates of $2.23B. The announcement sent shares down over 7% in extended trading as businesses delay or reduce HR and payroll software spending amid tighter budgets.

Analysts note macroeconomic headwinds, including potential hiring freezes or job cuts among small- and medium-sized businesses, Paycom’s core client base. Intensifying competition from ADP, Paylocity, and Workday is also a factor.

The Oklahoma City-based provider of cloud-based human capital management solutions reported Q4 revenue of $544.3M, exceeding estimates of $543M.

U.S. Department of Commerce announced a $252 million settlement with Applied Materials (AMAT) to resolve allegations of illegal exports of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. The enforcement action follows a probe into export compliance and is expected to have no immediate impact on AMAT’s stock price or operations, though it underscores ongoing scrutiny of semiconductor supply chain activities.

House Foreign Affairs Committee on February 11, 2026, passed a 219-211 vote opposing President Trump's proposed 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA exemption, with 6 Republican cosponsors and 1 Democratic naysayer. The measure, now heading to the Senate with a likely path to override, may still be vetoed by the White House.

The administration invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, citing Canada's failure to curb narcotics trafficking, and threatened to raise tariffs to 50% or 100%. Market reaction was immediate, with oil prices surging over 2% on a single day as uncertainty escalated.

The USMCA faces renewed risk after reports Trump is considering splitting the agreement into bilateral pacts and revisiting origin rules. If the pact unravels, supply chains could face disruption, with automotive costs in the U.S. rising数千 dollars and broader economic integration at stake. The vote reflects growing GOP分歧 over Trump's trade approach and adds a key political dimension to the 2026 midterms.

The U.S. Department of Defense is urging leading AI firms including OpenAI and Anthropic to make their tools available on classified networks with fewer standard restrictions. At a White House event on February 11, 2026, Pentagon Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael said the military aims to deploy frontier AI across all classification levels, including classified domains used for mission planning and targeting.

Of the companies in active talks, OpenAI has agreed to make its tools available on the unclassified genai.mil network to over 3 million Defense Department employees, removing many user guardrails while maintaining legal and ethical boundaries. Anthropic is engaged in contentious discussions over classified access, with the firm opposing autonomous weapon targeting and domestic surveillance.

The expansion seeks to leverage AI for battlefield information synthesis but raises risks of error and false information in sensitive settings. Anthropic and OpenAI have each sought to preserve safeguards and requested new authorizations for classified use beyond current agreements.

Zhipu AI (0.ZHIP) announced an immediate, at least 30% price increase for its GLM coding plan subscriptions to match rising demand, effective Feb 12, 2026. The adjustment does not apply to existing subscribers, the company stated on its WeChat account.

Palomar Holdings Inc. (PLMR) released Q4 results showing net income of $56.2 million, or $2.24 per share on an adjusted basis, surpassing Zacks Investment Research’s average analyst estimate of $2.06 per share. Revenue totaled $253.4 million, with adjusted revenue of $251 million, also beating forecasts of $222 million. Year-over-year, the company posted net income of $197.1 million, or $7.17 per share, and revenue of $864.1 million.

Gold fell on Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term. The labor force increased by the most in over a year in January, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, suggesting stability in the labor market at the start of 2026. This likely supports the Fed’s stance of pausing interest-rate policy for now, pushing the next rate cut possibly to July from June.

Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $5,065.56 an ounce as of 7:45 a.m. in Singapore. Silver fell 0.8% to $83.60, platinum was 1% lower, and palladium was down 1.5%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat after ending the previous session 0.1% lower. The data may keep the Fed’s interest-rate outlook on hold, tempering near-term support for gold which benefits from lower interest rates.

NEW YORK, NY (AP) — NewMarket Corp. (NEU) released Q4 results on February 11, 2026, reporting earnings of $81.3 million and $8.65 per share. Revenue for the quarter totaled $635.4 million. For the year, the company posted net income of $418.7 million, or $44.44 per share, with revenue of $2.73 billion.

CEO Elon Musk announced a restructuring of xAI following the exits of co-founders Jimmy Ba and Tony Wu, with the company reorganized into four core areas: Grok chatbot/voice, Coding, Imagine video, and Macrohard. Aman Madaan leads Grok, Manuel Kroiss the coding team, Guodong Zhang video and coding, and Toby Pohlen Macrohard. The company is aggressively hiring and expanding its Memphis data center complex, with a third building to bring compute capacity near 2 gigawatts and a $20 billion investment, including 10,000–20,000 GB300 systems.

On X, product leadership reported 1 billion active users, with January engagement the best month ever (+55% daily time). The platform now generates about $1 billion in annual recurring revenue and will launch a X Chat messaging app and limited X Money payments, with no ads in Grok. The recent $1.25 trillion xAI–SpaceX merger is supporting xAI’s capital needs as it scales.