Energy stocks led the S&P 500 this year, rallying 21% through February 11, outperforming materials and consumer必需s. The gains are supported by a technical re-rating of U.S. energy as a strategic, low-cost, reliable supply source essential for AI growth, alongside strong free cash flow and dividend yields.

Data: The S&P 500 Energy Component hit a 23.77-pt high on Feb 11, down 2.2% from the prior close. Exxon Mobil (XOM-US) -2.9% YTD +25%, Chevron (CVX-US) -1.8% YTD +20%, ConocoPhillips (COP-US) -0.3% YTD +18%. The IEA estimated 2026 oil supply at 10.86 million bpd vs demand of 10.48 million bpd.

Analysts note the sector is value-oriented and cheaper than the broad market, with free cash flow yield averaging over 7% vs ~4% for the S&P 500. While global supply remains ample, improving demand outlook and potential Fed easing could extend the momentum if earnings growth materializes.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran warned Feb 12 that current monetary policy is tighter than implied by official statements, potentially constraining U.S. growth that otherwise benefits from Trump-era policies like tax cuts. He argues inflation is not a problem and that low shelter inflation can offset higher inflation elsewhere.

"As long as inflation remains manageable, underwriting the labor market with looser monetary policy makes sense, especially as supply growth outpaces demand, supporting growth without inflation," Miran said. He advocated for further easing despite Fed policymakers leaving rates at 3.50%-3.75% in January, with a 10-2 vote against reductions.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, host of the event, favors maintaining restrictive policy, citing persistent inflation as the bigger risk than labor-market pressures.

Finance groups in Canada and the United Kingdom have paused new investments with DP World following the release of newly disclosed emails linking its CEO, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, to Jeffrey Epstein. The DOJ released the cache of Epstein-related documents, some referencing explicit content, including an email where Epstein wrote, “I loved the torture video.” DP World, a global logistics firm with terminals in major ports, faces heightened scrutiny. British International Investment and La Caisse, among others, stated they will not advance new capital or commitments until the company takes required actions. Neither is a direct investor, but they have co-invested in port projects. DP World has not issued a public response.

The Singapore Composite Index is tipped to open in the red on Friday, February 13, following a volatile session on the Straits Times Exchange. Weakness in local banking and real estate sectors, along with continued pressure from higher U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, are expected to weigh on sentiment. The index closed the previous session at 4,123.55, down 0.36%, while the Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 were also mixed in Asia. Trading volume is expected to remain moderate as the market awaits further policy signals from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

The Shanghai Composite and its constituent成份 stocks faced a regulatory crackdown that began in late January 2026, signaling an end to a multi-year bull run. The Chinese government intensified oversight on listed companies, requiring improved disclosures, tighter lending controls, and restrictions on speculative trading. As of February 13, 2026, the Shanghai Composite closed at 3,421.53 (-1.8%) and the CSI 300 at 4,932.50 (-2.1%). The CSI 300 has declined 15% from its 2024 high, with the broader Hang Seng and MSCI China indices down 20% and 22%, respectively. The crackdown is part of broader measures to cool an overheated market and address financial stability risks.

Global electric vehicle (EV) registrations fell 3% in January to nearly 1.2 million units, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data. The decline followed a purchase tax in China and reduced subsidies, alongside policy changes in the U.S., which together suppressed sales. China's registrations dipped 20% to under 600,000, the lowest in almost two years, while North America's sales fell 33% to just over 85,000, the lowest since early 2022. Europe posted a 24% increase to over 320,000, and the rest of the world rose 92% to nearly 190,000, led by strong performance in South Korea, Brazil, and Thailand.

OpenAI warned U.S. congressional leaders on February 13, 2026, that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has sought to access U.S. AI model outputs through "distillation" techniques to train its own models.

The memo details that DeepSeek employees have developed methods to circumvent OpenAI access restrictions and accessed models via obfuscated third-party routers. OpenAI also found code being developed to automate access to U.S. AI models for distillation training.

DeepSeek’s models, introduced at the start of last year, outperformed some U.S. offerings with far lower compute requirements, intensifying Washington’s concerns over China’s rapid AI advancement despite restrictions on high-performance computing chips.

OpenAI announced the launch of advertising within ChatGPT on February 13, 2026, directly contradicting its prior pledge with Sam Altman to avoid ads, which is seen as a reflection of escalating financial pressure and the urgency to commercialize its platforms.

Supporting details: OpenAI projects $100 billion in capital needs over the next four years to support compute for AI, despite $13 billion in revenue last year. The company aims to reach 50% enterprise revenue within the year, charging $200/month for premium access, while its ad and research revenue streams face infancy and skepticism, respectively. Industry experts warn its ad technology stack is nascent and will take years to scale, complicating its path to profitability and diversification.

Apple (AAPL) fell 5% on Thursday, its steepest decline since April, as regulatory and operational risks outweighed recent strength. The Federal Trade Commission warned Apple could violate laws by misrepresenting terms of service in its Apple News app and accused it of systematically favoring left-wing outlets over conservative ones. Separately, a report said an AI-enhanced Siri upgrade is delayed, adding to concerns the company has lagged peers in AI advancements. The declines erased recent gains and left Apple down for 2026. The company posted record holiday-quarter revenue, but the session marked its worst since April.

Apple (AAPL-US) closed Thursday, February 12, 2026, down 5%, losing about $202 billion in market value. The sell-off reflects heightened concern over lagging AI progress, with early tests of Siri upgrades hitting new issues and potentially delaying key iOS 26.4 features. The company may shift to a phased rollout, pushing some capabilities to iOS 26.5 in May or even iOS 27 in September.

Analysts note Apple’s AI execution will be the primary catalyst for pricing in the coming months. While the firm is integrating Gemini AI for some functions, it remains under scrutiny for its reliance on third-party models during the transition. Additional pressure comes from rising memory and storage costs driven by strong AI data center demand, estimated to increase iPhone component costs by about 15%. However, Bernstein analyst Mark Newman argues Apple is better positioned than peers to manage the impact on earnings.

Memory and storage peers Micron (MU-US), Seagate (STX-US), and Western Digital (WDC-US) have seen strong momentum amid the data center-driven shortage.

Gold steadied near $4,926.79 after a 3.2% intraday drop on February 12, amid a broader selloff across financial markets potentially amplified by algorithmic trading. The pullback followed volatile trading as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s likely stance on interest rates in response to January jobs data, which reduced urgency for a midyear rate cut. Silver rose 0.6% to $75.72; platinum and palladium also climbed. The dollar was little changed. Looking ahead, inflation figures due Friday could shape policy expectations and influence precious metals, which benefit from lower interest rates.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) provide a fixed-rate, time-bound income solution with FDIC insurance up to $250,000. Investors agree to deposit a specified amount for a set term in exchange for a guaranteed interest rate, with penalties for early withdrawal. CDs offer predictable returns and stability, appealing to income-focused investors seeking capital preservation and defined outcomes.

CDs can be issued directly by banks or through deposit brokers who may negotiate higher rates. Returns are typically compounded, with more frequent compounding yielding higher totals. A CD ladder spreads investments across CDs with staggered maturities to improve liquidity and reduce reinvestment risk.

While CDs limit market exposure and provide known income, they lack flexibility and may lose purchasing power against inflation. They are suitable for retirees or near-retirees with short-term income needs and can complement Treasuries in a diversified fixed-income allocation. Investors should consider penalties for early withdrawal and inflation risk when choosing CDs.

Hong Kong’s IPO pipeline, already off a four-year high in 2025 and off the busiest-ever start of the year, is straining a severe shortage of qualified principal bankers. The Securities and Futures Commission and the Exchange have issued letters to 13 major banks handling over 70% of 430 active listings, citing insufficient supervision capacity and inexperience. The number of responsible officers advising on corporate finance fell 90% since 2020 to 1,185 at year-end 2025, while principals are in high demand, with pay rises up to 45% and firms scrambling to qualify staff for upcoming exams. Banks must report principal counts and deal volumes by February 12. With mid-level bankers laid off during the downturn and IPO applications expected to moderate in coming months, issuers are poaching sponsors and some deals may be dropped or delayed.

Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior SA (BLX) released Q4 results showing earnings of $56 million and $1.50 per share. Revenue for the period was $209 million, with revenue net of interest expense reaching $88.8 million, exceeding analyst forecasts.

For the full year, BLX reported profit of $226.9 million, or $6.11 per share, on revenue of $339.6 million. Shares climbed 11% this year, closing at $49.68, a 32% gain from the last 12 months.

[Para 1: The Lead]

The U.S. Department of Commerce will release the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 13, 2026 (January 26, 2026 in local time), a key indicator of inflation and monetary policy outlook.

[Para 2: Supporting Details & Context]

Taiwan and the U.S. have finalized a trade agreement setting a 15% tariff on Taiwanese exports and committing Taiwan to phase down tariffs on U.S. goods, with a targeted procurement of $44.4 billion in LNG and crude oil between 2025 and 2029.

AI-driven semiconductor demand and memory shortages are lifting Applied Materials (AMAT-US) revenue and profits, while memory price gains are squeezing Cisco’s (CSCO-US) margins and pushing it down over 12% in its worst one-day drop since 2022. Apple (AAPL-US) fell 5% on delays to Siri AI and heightened FTC scrutiny of its news platform, its weakest single-day performance since April 2025.

Crypto activity tracked: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovered near $65,000 as the “digital gold” narrative wanes; gold (XAU/USD) outpaced BTC this year, up 16% versus a -22% loss for BTC.

OpenAI released GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark on February 13, 2026, its first code-completion model to run on Cerebras Systems' chips, marking diversification away from NVIDIA. The Codex-Spark is a streamlined version of Codex, prioritizing low-latency interactions over full inference capability.

Key metrics: response speed up 15x to over 1,000 tokens per second; 128,000-token context window; client-server round-trip overhead down 80%, cost per token down 30%, and first-token time down 50%. It is available to ChatGPT Pro researchers via the Codex CLI and VS Code extension.

Speed improvements come with trade-offs: it underperforms the full GPT-5.3-Codex on SWE-Bench Pro and Terminal-Bench 2.0. OpenAI plans to expand API access to select enterprise partners and later open to broader audiences based on workload feedback.

The move follows a >$100B collaboration with Cerebras in January 2026 and ongoing partnerships with AMD and Broadcom, while NVIDIA's $1T deal with OpenAI has reportedly slowed. Analysts see Codex-Spark as a strategic pivot to reduce single-vendor risk and enhance developer productivity in a fiercely competitive coding assistant market.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Congressional Budget Office confirm that U.S. households bear nearly 90% of import taxes from 2025 tariffs. In dollar terms, the average household paid an additional $1,000 in 2025, with businesses passing on about 70% of the burden. The CBO estimates consumers absorb roughly 5% of the cost, while businesses absorb about 25%.

The Tax Foundation report found that businesses are likely to narrow margins, passing the bulk of the burden to consumers. Tariff fatigue is mounting, with six House Republicans uniting with Democrats to seek repeal of Canadian tariffs, despite a likely Trump veto. A Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the tariffs is pending, potentially disrupting the agenda.

White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the policy, citing lower inflation and higher corporate profits despite a sevenfold increase in the average U.S. tariff rate. Meanwhile, household cost concerns outpace these gains, as job growth in 2025 was dominated by health care and social assistance (97% of gains), signaling a one-legged stool supporting broader economic resilience.

Microsoft AI Chief Mustafa Suleyman projects professional white-collar tasks—law, accounting, project management, and marketing—could be fully automated within 12–18 months, with most professional tasks reaching human-level AI performance within two years. Microsoft has extended its IP agreement with OpenAI through 2032 and is investing in in-house foundation models to ensure self-reliance.

Suleyman noted AI-assisted coding now handles the majority of software engineering tasks, and gains in compute power are enabling AI to outperform many programmers. Economists warn higher education and cognitively intensive roles are most at risk of displacement.

The CEO emphasized safety and subordinate AI operation, ensuring tools enhance human well-being and keep humans in control.

Global electric vehicle (EV) registrations fell 3% in January to nearly 1.2 million units, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data. The decline followed a purchase tax in China and reduced subsidies, alongside policy changes in the U.S., which together suppressed sales. China's registrations dipped 20% to under 600,000, the lowest in almost two years, while North America's sales fell 33% to just over 85,000, the lowest since early 2022. Europe posted a 24% increase to over 320,000, and the rest of the world rose 92% to nearly 190,000, led by strong performance in South Korea, Brazil, and Thailand.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CIPR) posted its weakest same-store sales in two decades in 2025, with comparable sales down about 2% versus a 7.4% gain in 2024. Net income for 2025 was $1.5B, roughly持平 to 2024. Management expects 2026 sales to be about flat, with 350–370 new locations planned as it seeks to preserve pricing while appealing to its 60% above-$100K core customers.

The broader K-shaped economy, with rising services inflation and job uncertainty, is shifting consumer focus to value. Competitors are cutting prices; a Chipotle bowl/burrito plus drink costs about $15, compared to Chili’s multi-course meal under $11. Chipotle shares have declined over 37% year-to-date, reflecting the pressure.