The January CPI slowed to a 2.4% annual rate, below economists' average 2.5% forecast, signaling cooling inflation. If confirmed, the 2027 Social Security COLA could be 1.2%, the smallest since 2016, based on the CPI-U for July–September and the index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. January recipient benefits will see a 2.8% COLA for 2026.
Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.5%, matching forecasts. While gas prices eased, essential costs remain elevated: grocery prices up 2.9% year-over-year and electricity up over 6%. Extreme cold is projected to raise U.S. home heating costs 11% this winter, pushing average seasonal costs to about $1,011 per household, the highest in four years and $100 higher than last winter.
These trends suggest budget pressures for many households, with heating costs outpacing inflation and contributing to growing financial distress.
Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.5%, matching forecasts. While gas prices eased, essential costs remain elevated: grocery prices up 2.9% year-over-year and electricity up over 6%. Extreme cold is projected to raise U.S. home heating costs 11% this winter, pushing average seasonal costs to about $1,011 per household, the highest in four years and $100 higher than last winter.
These trends suggest budget pressures for many households, with heating costs outpacing inflation and contributing to growing financial distress.