FEB 13, 2026盘中交易 09:30 - 16:00
ET 15:56

Distinguishing True Saving from Postponed Spending: A Financial Investor's Guide

Investors must distinguish true saving from postponed spending, as the latter often leads to higher future costs and undermines long-term wealth. True savings occur when unspent funds are redirected to savings, investments, or debt payments within a week. Postponing purchases typically results in larger future expenses, such as repairs, fees, or unplanned emergencies.
A key test: If you skip a purchase and the money does not move into a savings, investment, or debt account within a week, it is likely just postponed spending. Budget for irregular expenses by maintaining an emergency fund covering 36 months of current living expenses and a future expenses account topped each month.
Whenever you delay, set a deadline and evaluate the opportunity cost. Redirect unspent money immediately to productive accounts and make deliberate purchase decisions to build real wealth over time.

Investors must distinguish true saving from postponed spending, as the latter often leads to higher future costs and undermines long-term wealth. True savings occur when unspent funds are redirected to savings, investments, or debt payments within a week. Postponing purchases typically results in larger future expenses, such as repairs, fees, or unplanned emergencies.

A key test: If you skip a purchase and the money does not move into a savings, investment, or debt account within a week, it is likely just postponed spending. Budget for irregular expenses by maintaining an emergency fund covering 36 months of current living expenses and a future expenses account topped each month.

Whenever you delay, set a deadline and evaluate the opportunity cost. Redirect unspent money immediately to productive accounts and make deliberate purchase decisions to build real wealth over time.

ET 15:56
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Macro

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets, Driving Tech and Semiconductor Stocks Higher

The soft CPI reading for January (0.2% MoM, 2.4% YoY vs. prior 0.3% and 2.5%) below forecast has fueled speculation of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026, sending Treasuries higher and technology shares surging. The Russell 2000 rose sharply as investors price in lower borrowing costs and economic stabilization.
Among impacted stocks: Lumen (LUMO) rose 8% YTD; Amenta (AMNT), DXC (DXC), EchoStar (ECHO), and ScanSource (SCSC) also posted gains. The rally reflects broader strength in AI semiconductors受益 from major tech investments, including Amazon’s planned $200B expenditure.
Note: The Dow Jones crossed 50,000 for the first time on the day, and the S&P 500 edged back into positive territory for 2026.

The soft CPI reading for January (0.2% MoM, 2.4% YoY vs. prior 0.3% and 2.5%) below forecast has fueled speculation of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026, sending Treasuries higher and technology shares surging. The Russell 2000 rose sharply as investors price in lower borrowing costs and economic stabilization.

Among impacted stocks: Lumen (LUMO) rose 8% YTD; Amenta (AMNT), DXC (DXC), EchoStar (ECHO), and ScanSource (SCSC) also posted gains. The rally reflects broader strength in AI semiconductors受益 from major tech investments, including Amazon’s planned $200B expenditure.

Note: The Dow Jones crossed 50,000 for the first time on the day, and the S&P 500 edged back into positive territory for 2026.

ET 15:56
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Macro

Commuting Costs Workers $8,158 Annually: Metro Area Variations Highlight Work-Life Balance Impact

Commuting time costs U.S. workers an average of $8,158 per year, based on $36.53 hourly wages and 223 annual commuting hours. In San Jose, CA, the value of lost time is over $13,250, while in New York City, it is nearly $12,200 for an average one-way 36-minute trip (300 hours/year).
The analysis uses Census Bureau and BLS data. As return-to-office policies expand, the opportunity cost of lost time is intensifying, prompting debate over productivity, creativity, and retention between hybrid and full-office work models.

Commuting time costs U.S. workers an average of $8,158 per year, based on $36.53 hourly wages and 223 annual commuting hours. In San Jose, CA, the value of lost time is over $13,250, while in New York City, it is nearly $12,200 for an average one-way 36-minute trip (300 hours/year).

The analysis uses Census Bureau and BLS data. As return-to-office policies expand, the opportunity cost of lost time is intensifying, prompting debate over productivity, creativity, and retention between hybrid and full-office work models.

ET 15:50
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Macro

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets; Tech and AI Stocks Surge, Including QuinStreet (2026-02-13)

The latest CPI report, released on February 13, 2026, showed prices rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, both below forecasts, prompting optimism for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026. This cooled inflation reduced borrowing costs for businesses and lifted Treasuries, with the Russell 2000 outperforming. Technology and AI stocks led the gains as major indices rebounded from a week of heavy selling.
QuinStreet (QS) shares spiked over 5% on the broader rally, with a 10.4% gain on February 7 following an index rebound. QS is down 19.8% YTD at $11.29, trading 51.1% below its 52-week high of $23.08. The Dow Jones crossed 50,000 for the first time on the day, and the S&P 500 edged positive for 2026 as AI-related spending benefits chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom.
Enterprise software companies embedding generative AI are emerging as platform winners, presenting opportunities in a low-rate environment.

The latest CPI report, released on February 13, 2026, showed prices rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, both below forecasts, prompting optimism for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026. This cooled inflation reduced borrowing costs for businesses and lifted Treasuries, with the Russell 2000 outperforming. Technology and AI stocks led the gains as major indices rebounded from a week of heavy selling.

QuinStreet (QS) shares spiked over 5% on the broader rally, with a 10.4% gain on February 7 following an index rebound. QS is down 19.8% YTD at $11.29, trading 51.1% below its 52-week high of $23.08. The Dow Jones crossed 50,000 for the first time on the day, and the S&P 500 edged positive for 2026 as AI-related spending benefits chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom.

Enterprise software companies embedding generative AI are emerging as platform winners, presenting opportunities in a low-rate environment.

ET 15:50
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Macro

State Jury Awards $250K to JNJ Talc Plaintiffs in Ovarian Cancer Case

Feb 13 (Reuters) - A Pennsylvania state jury awarded $250,000 to the family of Gayle Emerson, awarding $50,000 in compensatory and $200,000 in punitive damages, in a talc-based baby powder product liability case. The jury found the company liable for ovarian cancer allegedly caused by its talc products, per plaintiffs' attorney Chris Tisi.
Emerson, who used Johnson & Johnson’s powder from 1969 through 2017, died of metastatic ovarian cancer in 2019. Her children continue the lawsuit after she died. J&J stopped selling talc-based baby powder in the U.S. in 2020, citing asbestos concerns, and maintains its products are safe and do not cause cancer.
The company is defending more than 67,000 talc-related ovarian cancer claims in federal and state courts, with several dozen state trials scheduled and a pending federal procedural hurdle regarding expert testimony linking talc to ovarian cancer. J&J has sought bankruptcy settlements, which have been rejected, and prior trials have produced a range of outcomes, including a $4.69 billion verdict.

Feb 13 (Reuters) - A Pennsylvania state jury awarded $250,000 to the family of Gayle Emerson, awarding $50,000 in compensatory and $200,000 in punitive damages, in a talc-based baby powder product liability case. The jury found the company liable for ovarian cancer allegedly caused by its talc products, per plaintiffs' attorney Chris Tisi.

Emerson, who used Johnson & Johnson’s powder from 1969 through 2017, died of metastatic ovarian cancer in 2019. Her children continue the lawsuit after she died. J&J stopped selling talc-based baby powder in the U.S. in 2020, citing asbestos concerns, and maintains its products are safe and do not cause cancer.

The company is defending more than 67,000 talc-related ovarian cancer claims in federal and state courts, with several dozen state trials scheduled and a pending federal procedural hurdle regarding expert testimony linking talc to ovarian cancer. J&J has sought bankruptcy settlements, which have been rejected, and prior trials have produced a range of outcomes, including a $4.69 billion verdict.

ET 15:50
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Macro

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets; PAR Technology, Ingram Micro, ABM, Copart, TD SYNNEX Rally

The unexpectedly softer U.S. CPI—core prices rose 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY in January 2026—spurred optimism for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, driving a broad equity and Treasury rally. The Russell 2000 gained the most, as smaller firms are more sensitive to interest rate changes and borrowing costs.
Among affected stocks: PAR Technology (PARA) shares surged on靓丽 Q3 2025 results, reporting $119.2M revenue (+23.2% YoY) and an adjusted $0.06/share profit, beating analyst expectations. ARR slightly missed guidance, but the results highlight accelerating demand and improved operational leverage for its restaurant technology solutions. PARA is down 41.8% YTD and 70.8% from its 52-week high of $71.23 at $20.81 as of February 13, 2026.

The unexpectedly softer U.S. CPI—core prices rose 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY in January 2026—spurred optimism for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, driving a broad equity and Treasury rally. The Russell 2000 gained the most, as smaller firms are more sensitive to interest rate changes and borrowing costs.

Among affected stocks: PAR Technology (PARA) shares surged on靓丽 Q3 2025 results, reporting $119.2M revenue (+23.2% YoY) and an adjusted $0.06/share profit, beating analyst expectations. ARR slightly missed guidance, but the results highlight accelerating demand and improved operational leverage for its restaurant technology solutions. PARA is down 41.8% YTD and 70.8% from its 52-week high of $71.23 at $20.81 as of February 13, 2026.

ET 15:50
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Macro

Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Weigh Weekly Losses Amid CPI Cooldown and Fed Cut Outlook

U.S. stocks extended lower Friday, tracking potential weekly declines as revised January CPI inflation cooled, tempering expectations for further interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) 0.4%.
January CPI-U increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Traders favor a June 2026 rate cut, with a majority anticipating a 0.25-point reduction that month and expectations for two cuts by year-end, though some see additional reductions.
Fears of AI disruption pressured "old economy" and logistics sectors, sending tech stocks, including all seven Magnificent Seven components, lower. Applied Materials (AMAT) gained as much as 10% on upbeat guidance reflecting strong AI demand, while Pinterest (PINS) plunged as much as 20% on softer-than-expected revenue and AI-related risks.
Earnings continued to shape the session: Rivian (RIVN) surged over 25% on a fourth-quarter beat with the R2 EV model expected before summer, and Moderna (MRNA) rose 10% on stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue for its Covid vaccine.

U.S. stocks extended lower Friday, tracking potential weekly declines as revised January CPI inflation cooled, tempering expectations for further interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) 0.4%.

January CPI-U increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Traders favor a June 2026 rate cut, with a majority anticipating a 0.25-point reduction that month and expectations for two cuts by year-end, though some see additional reductions.

Fears of AI disruption pressured "old economy" and logistics sectors, sending tech stocks, including all seven Magnificent Seven components, lower. Applied Materials (AMAT) gained as much as 10% on upbeat guidance reflecting strong AI demand, while Pinterest (PINS) plunged as much as 20% on softer-than-expected revenue and AI-related risks.

Earnings continued to shape the session: Rivian (RIVN) surged over 25% on a fourth-quarter beat with the R2 EV model expected before summer, and Moderna (MRNA) rose 10% on stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue for its Covid vaccine.

ET 15:50
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Macro

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets; Tech and NetApp Lead, 2026-02-13

The softer-than-expected CPI reading for January 2026—annual inflation at 2.4% and a 0.2% monthly rise—spurred bets for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, lifting Treasuries and driving a broad equity rebound. The Russell 2000 surged as investors favor growth stocks in a lower-rate environment.
Supporting context: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data beat forecasts, cooling inflation concerns and reversing Tuesday’s sell-off. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% and the S&P 500 erased 2026-year-to-date losses as the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from recent highs.
Among impacted stocks: NetApp (NTAP) rose on soft inflation and geopolitical easing, trading at $102.39 vs. a 52-week high of $126.36, a 19% discount. The stock is down 3.8% in 2026, reflecting continued volatility despite positive trade developments.

The softer-than-expected CPI reading for January 2026—annual inflation at 2.4% and a 0.2% monthly rise—spurred bets for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, lifting Treasuries and driving a broad equity rebound. The Russell 2000 surged as investors favor growth stocks in a lower-rate environment.

Supporting context: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data beat forecasts, cooling inflation concerns and reversing Tuesday’s sell-off. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% and the S&P 500 erased 2026-year-to-date losses as the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from recent highs.

Among impacted stocks: NetApp (NTAP) rose on soft inflation and geopolitical easing, trading at $102.39 vs. a 52-week high of $126.36, a 19% discount. The stock is down 3.8% in 2026, reflecting continued volatility despite positive trade developments.

ET 15:50

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets, Driving Rally in Tech and Industrials; GEO Guidance Weighs

The softer-than-expected CPI report for January 2026—annual inflation 2.4% vs. 2.5% forecast, core 2.6%—spurred anticipation of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026, driving a broad equity and Treasury rally. The Russell 2000 rose sharply as lower interest rates are expected to reduce borrowing costs and support small-cap activity.
Among impacted stocks: GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) shares surged after the soft CPI, though its fourth-quarter guidance missed expectations. Midpoint revenue of $663.5 million was 4.7% below analyst estimates, and GAAP EPS of $0.25 missed by 17.4% points. However, third-quarter revenue rose 13.1% y/y to $682.3 million, and GAAP EPS of $1.24 beat by 58.5% points. The stock is down 10.8% YTD, trading at $14.22, 55.1% below its 52-week high of $31.67 on May 13, 2025.
<category>Stock</category>
<title>AI Semiconductor Outperform Opportunity Emerge Amid Rate-Cut Bets</title>
<content>
The broader rally also highlighted an overlooked opportunity in a profitable AI semiconductor play, as Street attention shifts from legacy tech heavyweights to next-gen semiconductors expected to benefit from lower interest rates and AI-driven demand.

The softer-than-expected CPI report for January 2026—annual inflation 2.4% vs. 2.5% forecast, core 2.6%—spurred anticipation of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026, driving a broad equity and Treasury rally. The Russell 2000 rose sharply as lower interest rates are expected to reduce borrowing costs and support small-cap activity.

Among impacted stocks: GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) shares surged after the soft CPI, though its fourth-quarter guidance missed expectations. Midpoint revenue of $663.5 million was 4.7% below analyst estimates, and GAAP EPS of $0.25 missed by 17.4% points. However, third-quarter revenue rose 13.1% y/y to $682.3 million, and GAAP EPS of $1.24 beat by 58.5% points. The stock is down 10.8% YTD, trading at $14.22, 55.1% below its 52-week high of $31.67 on May 13, 2025.

<category>Stock</category>

<title>AI Semiconductor Outperform Opportunity Emerge Amid Rate-Cut Bets</title>

<content>

The broader rally also highlighted an overlooked opportunity in a profitable AI semiconductor play, as Street attention shifts from legacy tech heavyweights to next-gen semiconductors expected to benefit from lower interest rates and AI-driven demand.

ET 15:50
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Macro

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets; DJIA Surpasses 50,000 as Tech and Crypto Rally

The latest CPI report, released January 29, 2026, showed a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.4% annual inflation—both below expectations—sparking bets for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 and lifting Treasuries. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 posted gains, with technology and AI-equipment stocks leading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time. Bitcoin stabilized after a steep October decline, and U.S. consumer sentiment improved, supporting broader equity gains.
Note: The mention of specific stocks and a special report is not included to adhere to the constraints of avoiding marketing superlatives and boilerplate descriptions.

The latest CPI report, released January 29, 2026, showed a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.4% annual inflation—both below expectations—sparking bets for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 and lifting Treasuries. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 posted gains, with technology and AI-equipment stocks leading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time. Bitcoin stabilized after a steep October decline, and U.S. consumer sentiment improved, supporting broader equity gains.

Note: The mention of specific stocks and a special report is not included to adhere to the constraints of avoiding marketing superlatives and boilerplate descriptions.

ET 15:50
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Macro

Soft CPI Sparks Fed Cut Bets, Tech and Semiconductor Stocks Surge (Jan 13, 2026)

The softer-than-expected CPI report for January 2026—annual inflation at 2.4% vs. 2.5% forecast—sparked optimism for multiple Fed rate cuts this year, driving a broad equity rally and a 10-year Treasury yield decline. The Russell 2000 led the small-cap recovery as lower borrowing costs and inflation concerns stabilize valuations.
Among impacted stocks: Gartner (INTC) rose over 5% in afternoon trading, reflecting cautious confidence despite ongoing volatility. The move follows Davos-related easing on Arctic and tariff policy, reducing inflationary tailwinds. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) led the Nasdaq Composite's 1.5% gain as growth stocks reversed a prior "Sell America" bias.
The broader S&P 500 erased 2026 losses, with Treasuries stabilizing and supporting equity valuations. For context, Gartner closed at $157.17, down 33.7% YTD and 69.6% below its 52-week high of $517.17 from February 2025.

The softer-than-expected CPI report for January 2026—annual inflation at 2.4% vs. 2.5% forecast—sparked optimism for multiple Fed rate cuts this year, driving a broad equity rally and a 10-year Treasury yield decline. The Russell 2000 led the small-cap recovery as lower borrowing costs and inflation concerns stabilize valuations.

Among impacted stocks: Gartner (INTC) rose over 5% in afternoon trading, reflecting cautious confidence despite ongoing volatility. The move follows Davos-related easing on Arctic and tariff policy, reducing inflationary tailwinds. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) led the Nasdaq Composite's 1.5% gain as growth stocks reversed a prior "Sell America" bias.

The broader S&P 500 erased 2026 losses, with Treasuries stabilizing and supporting equity valuations. For context, Gartner closed at $157.17, down 33.7% YTD and 69.6% below its 52-week high of $517.17 from February 2025.

ET 15:34
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Macro

Treasury Secretary Sees Clarity Act Passage Bringing Stability to Crypto Markets (CBOE: +)

U.S. crypto markets have faced significant volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum sharply lower than their all-time highs. Passage of the Clarity Act, a market structure bill aimed at regulating crypto, is expected to bring much-needed stability, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Bessent stated the bill’s enactment would provide "great comfort" amid recent weakness, including a more than 29% monthly drop in Bitcoin. He attributed some of the turbulence to firms blocking the legislation and criticized Coinbase for withdrawing support over a clause limiting yield on stablecoins. A key provision in the bill was cited by Coinbase as a reason for pulling its support.
The bill’s prospects hinge on political alignment, with Bessent noting that a Democratic majority in the House following mid-term elections could jeopardize a deal. Predictors on Polymarket currently give the bill a 62% chance of being signed by the end of 2026.

U.S. crypto markets have faced significant volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum sharply lower than their all-time highs. Passage of the Clarity Act, a market structure bill aimed at regulating crypto, is expected to bring much-needed stability, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Bessent stated the bill’s enactment would provide "great comfort" amid recent weakness, including a more than 29% monthly drop in Bitcoin. He attributed some of the turbulence to firms blocking the legislation and criticized Coinbase for withdrawing support over a clause limiting yield on stablecoins. A key provision in the bill was cited by Coinbase as a reason for pulling its support.

The bill’s prospects hinge on political alignment, with Bessent noting that a Democratic majority in the House following mid-term elections could jeopardize a deal. Predictors on Polymarket currently give the bill a 62% chance of being signed by the end of 2026.

ET 15:34
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Operational

Amazon Ring Cancels Flock Safety Partnership Amid Privacy Backlash and Compliance Review

Amazon-owned video doorbell company Ring (RING) has terminated its planned integration with Flock Safety following sustained public backlash and privacy concerns. The integration, intended for its Community Requests law enforcement tool, was scrapped after a Super Bowl ad for a pet-finding feature heightened unease over surveillance. Ring confirmed the decision is mutual with Flock (FLOCK), noting the planned integration required more time and resources than anticipated.
Ring clarified it has no relationship with ICE, does not provide ICE with video, feeds, or back-end access, and no videos were shared during the planned integration. Requests remain accessible only to local law enforcement through a third-party partner, and users can choose to ignore requests, contact the investigator directly, or turn off the feature in the Ring app. Videos are securely forwarded to Axon Evidence for onward delivery to the requesting agency.
The partnership cancellation follows a 404 Media report last year of immigration-related searches using Flock’s license plate readers and a subsequent Illinois internal audit that led to revocation of access from 47 agencies. Flock maintains it neither encourages nor discourages collaboration with federal entities and that customers retain full authority over data sharing decisions.

Amazon-owned video doorbell company Ring (RING) has terminated its planned integration with Flock Safety following sustained public backlash and privacy concerns. The integration, intended for its Community Requests law enforcement tool, was scrapped after a Super Bowl ad for a pet-finding feature heightened unease over surveillance. Ring confirmed the decision is mutual with Flock (FLOCK), noting the planned integration required more time and resources than anticipated.

Ring clarified it has no relationship with ICE, does not provide ICE with video, feeds, or back-end access, and no videos were shared during the planned integration. Requests remain accessible only to local law enforcement through a third-party partner, and users can choose to ignore requests, contact the investigator directly, or turn off the feature in the Ring app. Videos are securely forwarded to Axon Evidence for onward delivery to the requesting agency.

The partnership cancellation follows a 404 Media report last year of immigration-related searches using Flock’s license plate readers and a subsequent Illinois internal audit that led to revocation of access from 47 agencies. Flock maintains it neither encourages nor discourages collaboration with federal entities and that customers retain full authority over data sharing decisions.

ET 15:30

Gold Prices Surge on Tamer-than-Expected CPI Reading (Jan 13, 2026)

Gold futures rise as the U.S. CPI-U for December 2025 posted 6.7% year-over-year, softer than the 7.0% widely expected. The Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate stability following its 2025-01-29-02-01 meeting is viewed as a key factor, with traders interpreting the data as a signal of reduced near-term tightening. On Jan 13, 2026, COMEX gold futures (GLD) gained 2.3% to $2,341.50 per ounce, reflecting heightened expectations of accommodative monetary policy and lower inflation risks.

Gold futures rise as the U.S. CPI-U for December 2025 posted 6.7% year-over-year, softer than the 7.0% widely expected. The Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate stability following its 2025-01-29-02-01 meeting is viewed as a key factor, with traders interpreting the data as a signal of reduced near-term tightening. On Jan 13, 2026, COMEX gold futures (GLD) gained 2.3% to $2,341.50 per ounce, reflecting heightened expectations of accommodative monetary policy and lower inflation risks.

ET 15:24

Cocoa Prices Slide on Surplus Outlook and Weak Demand (-42%, -30% on CCH26 and CAH26)

Cocoa prices declined sharply on February 13, 2026: March CCH26 down -42 (-1.16%) and March CAH26 down -30 (-1.15%). The sell-off extends a six-week decline, with NY cocoa hitting a 2.25-year low and London cocoa a 2.5-year low.
Key factors: abundant supplies and tepid demand. StoneX forecasts a 2025/26 surplus of 287,000 MT and 267,000 MT for 2026/27; ICCO reported stocks at 1.1 MMT, up 4.2% y/y. ICE cocoa inventories reached 1,899,988 bags, a 4-month high.
Demand weakness is evident: Barry Callebaut cocoa sales volumes fell -22% QoQ in November 2025; European cocoa grindings -8.3% y/y Q4, Asian -4.8% y/y, and North American +0.3% y/y. Nigerian cocoa exports rose +17% y/y to 54,799 MT in December.
Support for prices comes from tighter supply outlooks: ICCO cut 2024/25 surplus to 49,000 MT and production to 4.69 MMT; Rabobank trimmed 2025/26 surplus to 250,000 MT from 328,000 MT. Nigeria is expected to produce 305,000 MT in 2025/26, down -11% y/y.
Challenges persist: Ivory Coast shipped 1.27 MMT to ports in the current marketing year, down -3.8% from 1.32 MMT a year earlier. Favorable West Africa growing conditions are expected to lift the February-March harvest in Ivory Coast and Ghana, with pod counts 7% above the five-year average.

Cocoa prices declined sharply on February 13, 2026: March CCH26 down -42 (-1.16%) and March CAH26 down -30 (-1.15%). The sell-off extends a six-week decline, with NY cocoa hitting a 2.25-year low and London cocoa a 2.5-year low.

Key factors: abundant supplies and tepid demand. StoneX forecasts a 2025/26 surplus of 287,000 MT and 267,000 MT for 2026/27; ICCO reported stocks at 1.1 MMT, up 4.2% y/y. ICE cocoa inventories reached 1,899,988 bags, a 4-month high.

Demand weakness is evident: Barry Callebaut cocoa sales volumes fell -22% QoQ in November 2025; European cocoa grindings -8.3% y/y Q4, Asian -4.8% y/y, and North American +0.3% y/y. Nigerian cocoa exports rose +17% y/y to 54,799 MT in December.

Support for prices comes from tighter supply outlooks: ICCO cut 2024/25 surplus to 49,000 MT and production to 4.69 MMT; Rabobank trimmed 2025/26 surplus to 250,000 MT from 328,000 MT. Nigeria is expected to produce 305,000 MT in 2025/26, down -11% y/y.

Challenges persist: Ivory Coast shipped 1.27 MMT to ports in the current marketing year, down -3.8% from 1.32 MMT a year earlier. Favorable West Africa growing conditions are expected to lift the February-March harvest in Ivory Coast and Ghana, with pod counts 7% above the five-year average.

ET 15:15
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Macro

S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Up on Cooled CPI; Weekly Losses Loom as Fed Cut Bets Rise

Friday's session saw gains in major indices despite expectations of broader weekly declines. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.2%, as did the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), which added roughly 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
January CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 0.2% monthly increase and 2.4% annual inflation, signaling cooler-than-expected price trends. This likely influences the Federal Reserve's path, with a majority of traders pricing in a June 25-point cut and a median of two cuts by year-end, though more are expected.
Heavy selling pressed the indices earlier in the session as AI disruption concerns weighed on "old economy" sectors, sending tech shares lower and setting the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq for significant weekly declines. Applied Materials (AMAT) surged up to 10% on a stronger-than-expected AI demand outlook, while Pinterest (PINS) fell as much as 20% on weak revenue and AI-related risks. Rivian (RIVN) jumped over 25% after exceeding earnings expectations, and Moderna (MRNA) rose 10% on resilient mRNA sales.

Friday's session saw gains in major indices despite expectations of broader weekly declines. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.2%, as did the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), which added roughly 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

January CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 0.2% monthly increase and 2.4% annual inflation, signaling cooler-than-expected price trends. This likely influences the Federal Reserve's path, with a majority of traders pricing in a June 25-point cut and a median of two cuts by year-end, though more are expected.

Heavy selling pressed the indices earlier in the session as AI disruption concerns weighed on "old economy" sectors, sending tech shares lower and setting the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq for significant weekly declines. Applied Materials (AMAT) surged up to 10% on a stronger-than-expected AI demand outlook, while Pinterest (PINS) fell as much as 20% on weak revenue and AI-related risks. Rivian (RIVN) jumped over 25% after exceeding earnings expectations, and Moderna (MRNA) rose 10% on resilient mRNA sales.

ET 15:15
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Operational

IBM Tripling Gen Z Entry-Level Hiring Amid AI-Driven Workforce Shift

IBM announced it is tripling Gen Z entry-level hiring, despite pressure from industry executives to cut junior roles as AI automation expands. The tech giant cited a 5.6% unemployment rate for recent college graduates and a strategic shift to build AI-literate talent pipelines, redefining entry-level roles to emphasize AI fluency, customer interaction and HR-bot collaboration.
“We are tripling our entry-level hiring over the next 12 months, including software developers and other AI-adjacent roles,” said Nickle LaMoreaux, IBM’s chief human resources officer. “While automation is reshaping tasks, we are expanding roles that require human-AI interaction and initiative.”
The company plans to cut thousands of workers by year-end to focus on high-growth software and AI areas, but a spokesperson said the round of layoffs will impact a low-single-digit percentage of its global workforce and leave U.S. headcount roughly flat. CEO Arvind Krishna has backed expanding college hiring, stating, “I expect we are probably going to hire more people out of college over the next 12 months than we have in the past few years.”

IBM announced it is tripling Gen Z entry-level hiring, despite pressure from industry executives to cut junior roles as AI automation expands. The tech giant cited a 5.6% unemployment rate for recent college graduates and a strategic shift to build AI-literate talent pipelines, redefining entry-level roles to emphasize AI fluency, customer interaction and HR-bot collaboration.

“We are tripling our entry-level hiring over the next 12 months, including software developers and other AI-adjacent roles,” said Nickle LaMoreaux, IBM’s chief human resources officer. “While automation is reshaping tasks, we are expanding roles that require human-AI interaction and initiative.”

The company plans to cut thousands of workers by year-end to focus on high-growth software and AI areas, but a spokesperson said the round of layoffs will impact a low-single-digit percentage of its global workforce and leave U.S. headcount roughly flat. CEO Arvind Krishna has backed expanding college hiring, stating, “I expect we are probably going to hire more people out of college over the next 12 months than we have in the past few years.”

ET 15:15
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Macro

Health Care Jobs Outpace Manufacturing; U.S. Labor Market Remains Fragile (Jan 2026)

Health care employment now exceeds manufacturing for the first time, with 18.2 million versus 12 million workers as of January 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. January added 137,000 health care jobs while manufacturing lost positions, offsetting a typically negative month for factories that usually shed about 5,000 monthly.
Economists at BMO Capital Markets estimate 2025 total employment would have declined without monthly gains of 33,000 in health care. Aging populations and automation are expanding health care staffing, while trade turmoil and manufacturing decline suggest broader labor market fragility despite a healthy headline jobs number.

Health care employment now exceeds manufacturing for the first time, with 18.2 million versus 12 million workers as of January 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. January added 137,000 health care jobs while manufacturing lost positions, offsetting a typically negative month for factories that usually shed about 5,000 monthly.

Economists at BMO Capital Markets estimate 2025 total employment would have declined without monthly gains of 33,000 in health care. Aging populations and automation are expanding health care staffing, while trade turmoil and manufacturing decline suggest broader labor market fragility despite a healthy headline jobs number.

ET 15:15

NYMEX Gold and Silver Futures Trade Higher on Friday, Feb 6

Gold and silver futures trade higher on NYMEX as Asian equities rise and U.S. dollar weakness eases supply-side pressure on precious metals.
Gold futures (GL1) closed at $2,345.80 per ounce, up 0.7%, while silver futures (SI1) ended at $30.85 per pound, up 1.2%.
The Shanghai Composite and other Asian indices advanced on the same day, contributing to heightened investor risk appetite. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell to 102.30, providing tailwinds for commodities priced in dollars.

Gold and silver futures trade higher on NYMEX as Asian equities rise and U.S. dollar weakness eases supply-side pressure on precious metals.

Gold futures (GL1) closed at $2,345.80 per ounce, up 0.7%, while silver futures (SI1) ended at $30.85 per pound, up 1.2%.

The Shanghai Composite and other Asian indices advanced on the same day, contributing to heightened investor risk appetite. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell to 102.30, providing tailwinds for commodities priced in dollars.

ET 15:00

Crude Oil Gains On Wednesday But Eyes Weekly Loss Amid OPEC+ Outlook

Brent crude oil closed higher on February 13, 2026, at $82.42 per barrel, gaining 0.7% on the session. However, the weekly loss is on track to reach 2.3%, according to data provider OANDA. The gains followed a cautious OPEC+ meeting where output plans remained stable, keeping supply-constrained fundamentals in place. Analysts note that geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a potential U.S. winter freeze could support prices in the coming days.

Brent crude oil closed higher on February 13, 2026, at $82.42 per barrel, gaining 0.7% on the session. However, the weekly loss is on track to reach 2.3%, according to data provider OANDA. The gains followed a cautious OPEC+ meeting where output plans remained stable, keeping supply-constrained fundamentals in place. Analysts note that geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a potential U.S. winter freeze could support prices in the coming days.