Economist Warns AI Bubble May Burst From Outside the Boom, Citing $2 Trillion Debt Risk

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at Global Data.TS Lombard, warned in a report dated the 19th that the AI bubble may rupture from pressures outside the boom itself rather than from within, as investors overlook structural vulnerabilities in the sector. Perkins argued that much of the AI industry's revenue growth remains capital circulating inside the ecosystem rather than genuine spending by enterprises and consumers on AI services. He estimated debt in parts of the AI ecosystem could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2027, with smaller cloud providers, model developers and infrastructure suppliers raising leverage while hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google retain strong balance sheets. He flagged risks including a chip oversupply from double-ordering, higher interest rates eroding investment returns, and political backlash. "They don't realize ordinary people don't like AI," Perkins wrote of AI advocates, noting that voters concerned about jobs and data centers could trigger rapid backlash. The warning follows a selloff in chip stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounding just 2% after dropping more than 11%. Perkins said the debt does not pose systemic financial risk but could spark chain reactions.