Polymarket Traders Price 10% Odds of AI Bubble Bursting by End of 2026

Prediction platform Polymarket traders this week raised bets on an AI bubble burst, though the implied probability of the market's "bubble burst" criteria being met before the end of 2026 stood at about 10% as of reporting, well below prior highs. A separate Polymarket market puts the odds of a burst before July 2027 at roughly 20%. The shift accompanied rising yields on some CoreWeave bonds as investors pulled back from AI-related debt. The 2026 contract has drawn nearly $2.5 million in cumulative volume. Settlement requires at least three of six conditions within any 90-day window: Nvidia (NVDA) closing 50% below its record high; the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) falling 40% from its peak; a 50% drop in TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), Broadcom (AVGO), Arista Networks (ANET) or Super Micro (SMCI); Nvidia H100 GPU rental rates at $1 or less per hour for five straight days per SiliconData; bankruptcy filing by OpenAI or Anthropic; or OpenAI's acquisition. Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni said his firm's AI bubble indicator, built with Anthropic's Claude, shows bubble conditions are ample but no near-term crash trigger has been detected.