Goldman Sachs warns power grid bottlenecks threaten AI buildout as data center demand set to surge 170%

Goldman Sachs warned that power infrastructure constraints pose the biggest risk to the AI buildout, with global data center power demand projected to surge 170% between 2025 and 2030 and more than 60% of that growth concentrated in the U.S., according to a report shared exclusively with Axios. "Power is probably the forever bottleneck," said Jason Tofsky, Goldman's global head of digital infrastructure investment banking. The bank estimates roughly $7.6 trillion in capital spending between 2026 and 2031 across computing, data centers and power infrastructure. The U.S. has about 2,600 gigawatts of proposed generation and storage projects awaiting grid connections—more than twice existing installed capacity—though many may never materialize. The median time from application to commercial operation is roughly five years. Goldman projects $420 billion in global hyperscaler debt issuance in 2027, up more than 60% from its 2026 estimate, with debt financing roughly 35% of hyperscaler capital expenditures next year. Since January, 86 projects have been canceled or significantly delayed, including 76 tied to local opposition. Utility capital plans are expected to reach $1.3 trillion between 2026 and 2030.