Airbus Forecasts 46% Freighter Fleet Growth by 2045, Requires 2,670 New Aircraft

Airbus projected Wednesday that the global freighter fleet will grow 46% by 2045, requiring 2,670 new aircraft — 65 more than its prior forecast — with annual air cargo traffic growth estimated at 3.2%. Of the total, 970 airframes will be factory-built and 1,700 will enter service as passenger-to-freighter conversions. Fifty-seven percent of demand will be for medium and large widebody freighters. Roughly 1,100 aircraft address fleet growth, with the remainder replacing aging equipment; two-thirds of the current fleet of more than 2,350 freighters will be replaced over 20 years. Airbus based its growth estimate on economists' forecasts of 2.9% annual global trade expansion, and said tariff impacts have been muted as volumes shifted between regions rather than declined. Asia is the fastest-growing region at 4%. The planemaker reaffirmed first A350F delivery to a customer in late 2027, following certification testing. Airbus holds 115 A350F orders from 15 customers; Boeing has 81 orders for its 777-8F.