J.P. Morgan Projects $22 Billion GLP-1 Market in China, India, Brazil by 2035

The combined weight-loss drug market across China, India and Brazil could expand to $22 billion by 2035 from $6.6 billion currently, J.P. Morgan estimated in a Friday note, citing improving affordability and broader access in largely untapped patient populations. The addressable market is projected to grow at a 15% annual rate through 2035, analysts led by Yang Huang wrote, driven by the countries' large diabetes and obesity burdens. China accounts for more than 25% of global diagnosed diabetes cases and India over 15%, while about 12% of Brazilian adults have diabetes, according to the bank. GLP-1 penetration remains below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, versus 4%-5% in the U.S. J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake Brazil as the largest of the three markets by 2027, reaching $13.7 billion by 2035 versus Brazil's $8 billion, supported by wider reimbursement. The brokerage named Innovent, Divi's Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and RD Saude as key stocks for the theme.