JPMorgan Ranks Bitcoin Top of Ten-Year Asset Forecast at 10% Annual Return

JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions projects Bitcoin at a 10% annualized compound return over 10 to 15 years, placing it first among 13 asset classes — the first time the bank has assigned the cryptocurrency a return figure in the report's 31-edition history. REITs rank second at 8.2%, followed by small caps at 7.7% and U.S. large caps at 7.5%. Gold sits near the bottom at 5.5%. Over a decade of compounding, $100 in Bitcoin would grow to $259 versus $206 for large caps and $171 for gold. JPMorgan flagged Bitcoin's 20.9% arithmetic return against its 10% compound figure — a 10.9-point volatility drag versus 1.45 points for large caps — with annualized volatility at 55% against 18% for stocks. The bank called the debasement bull case "wide of the mark." The forecast lands as 10-year Treasury yields hold above 5%, with JPMorgan's global bond forecasts at two-decade highs.