CoreWeave CDS Implies 60% Default Odds as Stock Tests Bear-Trap Level at $59.25

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell to their lowest level since May 2025 in early Tuesday trading, extending a more than 40% decline since October 6, before buyers stepped in and lifted the stock back above Monday's low of $59.25 — a level technical traders view as the trigger for a potential bear trap. The company's five-year credit default swaps closed near 1,090 basis points on Monday, nearly triple year-earlier levels, implying roughly a 60% probability of default within five years, according to Bloomberg data. Investors are concerned that CoreWeave has taken on heavy debt to build data centers and leases them to cash-burning AI companies. The stress is spreading beyond CoreWeave, whose hedging costs actually eased slightly from Friday's peak. Oracle (ORCL) CDS rose to the highest level since at least 2021, while swaps for Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) hit multi-month highs. BofA Global Research characterized last week's selloff as position-driven, concentrated in high-leverage names such as CoreWeave and Nebius (NBIS). On the equity side, holding $59.25 preserves the bear-trap setup; a close below Tuesday's $57.24 low would refocus attention on the May 2025 low near $53, with the $33-$36 historical range below that.