Bernstein Trims CoreWeave Funding Gap Estimate to $18B–$42B but Keeps Underperform Rating, $54 Target

Bernstein cut its estimate of the external financing CoreWeave (CRWV) needs to fulfill about $129 billion in contracted backlog to $18 billion to $42 billion, down from a prior $75 billion incremental capital projection, but maintained an Underperform rating and a $54 price target, implying roughly 2% downside. The revised model uses a power-capacity basis, assuming about $40 million to $42 million of capital expenditure per megawatt, yielding $44 billion to $68 billion of required capex. Including contracted capacity of nearly 4.2 GW due online by end-2028, capex would rise to $95 billion to $122 billion, with $70 billion to $96 billion of external financing still needed. Bernstein said the core risk is not whether current orders can be funded but that funding costs are rising as enterprise contract terms shorten, weakening the collateral base behind each new dollar of capital. It forecast adjusted losses per share of $5.14 in 2026 and $6.60 in 2027, with operating profit improving meaningfully only in 2027. CoreWeave shares have declined steadily since October 14.