Polymarket Probes Dozens of Midterm Election Bets, Refers Two Cases to CFTC

Polymarket has investigated "dozens" of bets on its midterm election markets for possible insider trading and manipulation, with at least two cases referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to NPR. Shana Bautista, the company's head of global intelligence and investigations, said her 16-person team is policing election bets with a new surveillance system ahead of the November 3 vote. The system draws on social media data, Federal Election Commission filings, crypto companies, banking partners and statistical models, generating "hundreds of alerts a day," Bautista said. She added that crypto trades are rarely fully anonymous, and that her team has been able to identify users in every case it has worked. Polymarket monitors both its U.S.-regulated exchange, which requires identity verification, and Polymarket International, where users trade anonymously with crypto. Rival Kalshi launched its own FEC-based system in May to block campaign staffers from betting on elections, and said it had opened more than 150 investigations that year and referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement. CFTC staff warned in September that "mention markets" should be presumed susceptible to manipulation.