Galp Lifts 2026 EBITDA Outlook to €5 Billion After Q3 Earnings Beat; Shares Fall 9% on Moeve Deal Collapse

Galp Energia raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to about €5 billion from €4 billion after third-quarter adjusted earnings surged 67%, though shares fell roughly 9% after the company said talks to combine its downstream operations with Spain's Moeve ended without an agreement. The Portuguese energy group reported adjusted EBITDA of €1.52 billion, up from about €910 million a year earlier and above analyst expectations of €1.47 billion. Adjusted net income rose 68% to €682 million, beating forecasts of €634 million. Realized refining margins jumped to $34 per barrel of oil equivalent from $9.50, lifting Industrial and Midstream adjusted EBITDA to €639 million from €315 million. Upstream earnings rose to €708 million from €464 million on higher prices and output from Brazil's Bacalhau field. Galp also raised its operating cash flow forecast to €3.9 billion from €3 billion and its assumed Brent price to $90 from $80. Net debt stood at €1.43 billion at the end of September, with leverage at 0.35 times adjusted EBITDA.