Brazil's Ibovespa Jumps 8% as Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Presidential Race Ahead of Runoff

Brazil's Ibovespa index surged 8% on Monday, October 5, 2026, after Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.03% of the vote in Sunday's presidential election, forcing a second-round runoff against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took 45.16%. The far-right Liberal Party candidate's unexpectedly strong showing boosted investor confidence in a potential fiscal overhaul. His platform includes tax cuts, public debt reduction and privatization of dozens of state-owned companies. The Brazilian real strengthened to 4.98 per dollar, up from 5.22 at Friday's close. Analysts at BTG Pactual estimate a Bolsonaro victory on October 25 could drive B3 exchange shares up as much as 45%. Flávio Bolsonaro captured more than 56 million votes, while Lula received nearly 53.9 million. Despite controlled inflation and record-low unemployment under Lula's third term, voters have cited declining purchasing power.