Trucking Capacity Tightens as Load Rejections Hit 14%, Four Times Normal Rate

The freight market faces a structural capacity crisis, with carriers rejecting loads at nearly four times the usual rate on roughly stable volumes, according to a Tuesday Sonar market update by Julie Van de Kamp. Tender rejection rates have climbed to about 14%, roughly triple 2023 levels, while truckload volumes are up only 9% over three years. Total for-hire tractors fell approximately 51,000 in August alone. Net carrier authority additions turned positive in 2026, exceeding 2,000 per week, but Van de Kamp cautioned this reflects noise around the FMCSA's MOTIS system rather than real capacity growth; new authority grants ran about 17% below first-quarter levels. Driver availability compounds the constraint: more than 202,000 CDL holders are sidelined for drug and alcohol violations, and English proficiency enforcement removes about 2,700 drivers monthly. Insurance premiums rose 4% in 2025 and another 4% to 6% in early 2026. Schneider called the market driver-constrained; Knight-Swift and Werner cited driver limits on fleet growth. Van de Kamp expects tight conditions through at least early 2027.