North American Rail Traffic Rises 3.5% as Intermodal Hits Record; Drayage Driver Shortage Threatens Growth

North American rail traffic rose 3.5% in week 38, led by intermodal volume up 5.3% year over year, according to Association of American Railroads data. U.S. intermodal surged 6.3% and carloads climbed 3%, pushing the domestic year-over-year gain to 4.8%. Railroads say domestic intermodal is running at a record pace, but a shrinking drayage driver pool is becoming the binding constraint. Registered drayage drivers fell from 531,000 at the 2022 peak to 483,000 at the end of last year and 467,000 as of July — a decline of roughly 64,000. JB Hunt flagged at an investment conference that its growth is limited by available drayage capacity. Excluding coal and grain, U.S. carloads rose 4.9%. Chemicals and petroleum shipments jumped 7.7%, with metallic ores and metals up 9.5%. Motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%, largely a base effect from accelerated EV purchases ahead of the September 30, 2023 federal tax credit expiration. Separately, Brightline filed for bankruptcy protection but continues operating with record revenue and passenger loadings. Analysts expect a debt restructuring rather than a shutdown.