Intel Shares Plunge Nearly 30% as Weak PC Outlook, Unclear Foundry Orders Threaten Negative Free Cash Flow

Intel (INTC) shares fell nearly 30% intraday Friday after the chipmaker issued fourth-quarter guidance well below estimates and warned free cash flow may turn negative next year. The company projected Q4 revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion versus roughly $17.1 billion expected, with adjusted EPS of $0.25 against a $0.43 consensus. Client computing revenue fell 5% year over year to $8.097 billion in the third quarter, and Intel forecast a sequential decline exceeding 20% in Q4 as memory price increases curb PC replacement demand. CFO Dave Zinsner said the PC slowdown will persist through at least the first half of next year. Morgan Stanley estimated consensus revenue could be cut by $3 billion to $4 billion. Foundry revenue was $6.697 billion, mostly internal, with an operating loss of $1.853 billion. Intel kept 2026 gross capital spending near $20 billion and said 2027 will rise sharply, with Zinsner calling next year an investment year. Third-quarter revenue was $16.513 billion, up 21% year over year.