US September Core Capital Goods Shipments Rise 1.2% as Durable Goods Orders Top Forecasts

New orders for U.S.-made durable goods rose 1.8% in September, slightly below the 1.9% consensus, while core capital goods shipments climbed 1.2%, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday. August orders were revised up to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported 0.1% decline. Excluding transportation, orders increased 0.5%, missing the 0.6% estimate but extending growth to an 18th straight month. Overall orders were lifted by aircraft and other transportation equipment, with gains elsewhere more modest. Orders were up 10% from a year earlier, rising in six of the past seven months. The closely watched nondefense capital goods orders series excluding aircraft—a proxy for business equipment spending—rose 0.5%, below the 0.7% estimate and down from August's unrevised 1.6%. The shipments figure feeds into GDP calculations, signaling equipment investment remained supportive in the third quarter, which economists expect to show annualized growth above 3% in Thursday's preliminary reading. Business equipment spending has posted double-digit growth for two straight quarters, driven by aggressive AI investment, though investors are increasingly focused on rising costs and uncertain returns from debt-funded AI buildouts.