China October Factory PMI Expected to Ease to 50, Reuters Poll Shows

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index is expected to dip to 50 in October from 50.1 in September, according to the median forecast of a Reuters poll of 23 economists, pointing to flat factory activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the survey on Saturday. The print offers an early snapshot of manufacturing after third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, outpacing the prior quarter's 4.3% and putting the full-year 4.5%-5.0% target within reach without added stimulus. The sector continues to run at two speeds: chipmakers and high-tech manufacturers benefit from AI-driven price gains and state backing for tech self-reliance, while domestic-facing producers face weak demand and rising input costs. Retail sales continued to lag industrial output in September, infrastructure investment fell 4.2% in the first nine months, and auto sales declined for a 12th straight month. Policymakers have directed cheaper credit toward infrastructure and technology and allocated 550 billion yuan ($82.51 billion) in unused debt quotas to ease local government strains. The private RatingDog PMI, compiled by S&P Global, is due November 2 and is forecast at 51.6, down from 52.1.