ImportGenius Flags Over $100B Gap Between China Export and US Import Data

ImportGenius has identified a more than $100 billion gap between what China reported shipping to the United States last year and what U.S. records show as received, highlighting the limits of government trade statistics and the growing role of bill-of-lading data in supply chain intelligence. The company normalized its shipment-level data into TEUs and cross-referenced that count against U.S. Census dollar values to derive a value-per-container figure. Comparing that metric to China's TEU-normalized figures produced what it called a major and "mystifying" difference. Possible explanations include transshipment through third countries such as Vietnam, incorrectly recorded shipment values, and incentives tied to tariff optimization. "We see some of the incentive in this might simply be related to tariff and optimizing for tariff bills," said CEO Michael Kanko. He said users increasingly tap shipment records for sourcing and sanctions compliance, verifying counterparties, and lead generation as U.S. manufacturers target importers of competing goods. Kanko expects ocean shipping activity to continue, possibly intensify, through at least the midterm elections, with rising volumes from Vietnam, Mexico, and other origins. ImportGenius is also advocating the Manifest Modernization Act, which would require public manifest data for air cargo, nearly half of U.S. imports by value.