US Third-Quarter GDP Likely Rose 3.2% on AI Investment, Resilient Consumer Spending

U.S. economic growth likely accelerated in the third quarter, with GDP projected to rise at a 3.2% annualized rate, up from 2.2% in the April-June period, according to a Reuters economist survey. AI-driven business investment and steady consumer spending are expected to have offset drags from a record goods trade deficit and elevated oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict. The trade shortfall likely subtracted at least 4 percentage points from growth, but economists expect AI-related equipment spending to post a third straight quarter of double-digit gains, with data-center construction lifting nonresidential investment. Consumer spending, over two-thirds of the economy, is projected to have grown above 3.0%, though households are saving less and drawing down reserves as gasoline prices hold above $4 a gallon. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its benchmark rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range, noting inflation "remains elevated." Economists expect a December rate hike. The Commerce Department releases its advance third-quarter GDP estimate Thursday, ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.